Reader off this book will read it for one simple reason: You want to trade Forex successfully, which is to say you want to be a profitable Forex trader. I'm not going to lose sight of this fact. nIn fact, I can tell you why I chose to take on the painstaking effort of writing my book.About four years ago, more than a few of my students wanted to trade Forex and I did not have a book or course to recommend to them. I did visit many bookstores in an effort to find even one book that I felt provided would-be Forex traders a methodology they could follow. My search yielded no results. Let me tell you what I did find. I found books that discussed the history of the Forex, books that discussed the interbank relationship, books that discussed the pairs and fundamentals of the Forex market, and finally books that discussed all the patterns and indicators you could use in the Forex market. I call the last type of book "glossary" books because that's all that they are: A collection of definitions and descriptions with no step-by-step methodology.
Chapter 1: Trading ForeX"You may be asking yourself, "Why haven’t I heard of this market before now?" If this trading market is relatively new to you, don’t feel like you are alone. Let’s explore what every trader or investor needs to know about Forex. The foreign exchange or “Forex” (also called the spot market) is the largest market on the planet. This is an irrefutable fact. Its average $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion traded per day is almost 100 times that of the $25 billion of the NYSE. And while we will be discussing this in depth later, remember, size has its advantages. The Forex market may seem like a new market to those of us in the United States but in actuality this market has been around for many years. There are two developments that brought Forex trading to life and to the United States. First was the decision that led to the free-floating market we trade today. The catalyst was President Richard M. Nixon’s decision to abandon the gold standard in 1973 (...)"
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Foreign exchange market
The foreign exchange market (currency, forex, or FX) trades currencies. It lets banks and other institutions easily buy and sell currencies.
The purpose of the foreign exchange market is to help international trade and investment. A foreign exchange market helps businesses convert one currency to another. For example, it permits a U.S. business to import European goods and pay Euros, even though the business's income is in U.S. dollars.
In a typical foreign exchange transaction a party purchases a quantity of one currency by paying a quantity of another currency. The modern foreign exchange market started forming during the 1970s when countries gradually switched to floating exchange rates from the previous exchange rate regime, which remained fixed as per the Bretton Woods system.
The foreign exchange market is unique because of
its trading volumes,
the extreme liquidity of the market,
its geographical dispersion,
its long trading hours: 24 hours a day except on weekends (from 22:00 UTC on Sunday until 22:00 UTC Friday),
the variety of factors that affect exchange rates.
the low margins of profit compared with other markets of fixed income (but profits can be high due to very large trading volumes)
the use of leverage
competition, notwithstanding market manipulation by central banks. According to the Bank for International Settlements, average daily turnover in global foreign exchange markets is estimated at $3.98 trillion. Trading in the world's main financial markets accounted for $3.21 trillion of this. This approximately $3.21 trillion in main foreign exchange market turnover was broken down as follows:
$1.005 trillion in spot transactions
$362 billion in outright forwards
$1.714 trillion in foreign exchange swaps
$129 billion estimated gaps in reporting
The purpose of the foreign exchange market is to help international trade and investment. A foreign exchange market helps businesses convert one currency to another. For example, it permits a U.S. business to import European goods and pay Euros, even though the business's income is in U.S. dollars.
In a typical foreign exchange transaction a party purchases a quantity of one currency by paying a quantity of another currency. The modern foreign exchange market started forming during the 1970s when countries gradually switched to floating exchange rates from the previous exchange rate regime, which remained fixed as per the Bretton Woods system.
The foreign exchange market is unique because of
its trading volumes,
the extreme liquidity of the market,
its geographical dispersion,
its long trading hours: 24 hours a day except on weekends (from 22:00 UTC on Sunday until 22:00 UTC Friday),
the variety of factors that affect exchange rates.
the low margins of profit compared with other markets of fixed income (but profits can be high due to very large trading volumes)
the use of leverage
competition, notwithstanding market manipulation by central banks. According to the Bank for International Settlements, average daily turnover in global foreign exchange markets is estimated at $3.98 trillion. Trading in the world's main financial markets accounted for $3.21 trillion of this. This approximately $3.21 trillion in main foreign exchange market turnover was broken down as follows:
$1.005 trillion in spot transactions
$362 billion in outright forwards
$1.714 trillion in foreign exchange swaps
$129 billion estimated gaps in reporting
Saturday, August 15, 2009
The Bailout Irony
As the US Congress puts the finishing touches on a $700 Billion plan intended to resuscitate the ailing financial sector, analysts remain hard at work assessing the potential implications. The consensus- unchanged from when the plan was first unveiled- is strongly negative, especially as far as the Dollar is concerned. When combined with the government’s other initiatives, the bailout will add nearly $1 Trillion to America’s national debt. Additionally, the Federal Reserve Bank would have to print money to bridge a shortfall in the government’s borrowings, thereby stoking the fires of inflation. Ironically, the Dollar’s best chance to avoid a continued decline is if the bailout plan fails in its stated aim, and the American economy implodes, pulling the global economy down with it. The Wall Street Journal reports:
Investors have already begun to cut their exposure to emerging-market and other higher-yielding currencies, and this trend could continue even if the dollar is no longer the bedrock of safety it once was.
Investors have already begun to cut their exposure to emerging-market and other higher-yielding currencies, and this trend could continue even if the dollar is no longer the bedrock of safety it once was.
Forex is a Global Game
One of the advantages of trading currencies (compared to other types of securities) is that forex markets operate continuously from 6PM (US Eastern time) Sunday to 4PM Friday. However, some traders may find this overwhelming. After all, if the markets never close, how should one decide when to trade? Let’s begin with a quick overview. London dominates worldwide forex trading, with New York in second place, followed by Tokyo and Sydney. Investopedia points out that the best time(s) to trade are when these markets overlap, due to a surge in liquidity, and hence, volatility. The best such overlap is between London and New York, due to the popularity of the Euro/USD pair. During these times, the "Pip" spread can widen from 30 to 70. However, since Tokyo dominates trading in Asian currencies, its overlap with Sydney is also a prime time to trade. Forbes reports:
When more than one of the four markets are open simultaneously, there will be a heightened trading atmosphere, which means there will be greater fluctuation in currency pairs.
When more than one of the four markets are open simultaneously, there will be a heightened trading atmosphere, which means there will be greater fluctuation in currency pairs.
Commentary: Dollar Rally- Fact or Fiction?
Over the last month, the Dollar has rallied tremendously, rising over 7% against its main adversary, the Euro. The price of gold, which serves as an inverse proxy for investor confidence in the USD, has fallen dramatically. As a result, many analysts have proclaimed that the Dollar has (permanently) bottomed out, and are busying themselves preparing projections for how high the Dollar will rise. But is the Dollar rally sustainable?
In the short-term, I would argue the answer is yes. The bubbles in the various sectors of commodity markets seem to have partially deflated, with oil and certain food staples well below the record highs they touched earlier in the year. As a result, inflation may soon begin to abate, and return to a comfortable level as early as 2009. More importantly, the US economy was among the first to be affected by the credit and real estate crises. Some analysts have argued that the worst developments have already come to pass. The crisis has since spread to the global economy, with other countries sharing in some of the burden. The result is that the US economic and monetary cycle is probably ahead of most of its peers. Accordingly, by the time the full impact of the crisis is felt by the rest of the world, the US should firmly be on the path to recovery. As other Central Banks move to ease their respective monetary policies, the Fed should be in a position to hike rates, providing further support for the Dollar.
As a result of this belief, US capital markets have received a sudden inflow of capital. This trend has been further buoyed by the notion that the US is the safest place to invest in times of crisis is gaining traction among investors. If the credit crisis continues to spread, this notion will no doubt be reinforced.
The long-term picture is of course more nuanced. The US will hardly emerge from the current crisis unscathed, and the ultimate cost of the credit crisis could exceed $1 Trillion. In addition, the US is unlikely to be shamed into changing its nasty habit of spending more than it saves. Accordingly, the twin deficits, those permanent thorns in the side of the Dollar, will probably persist. In addition, recent history suggests that investors are slow to absorb the lesson that There is No Such Thing as a Free Lunch. Despite the horrible collapse of the dot-com bubble, investors piled willy-nilly into the real estate market, with the result speaking for itself. Analysts are already speculating where the next bubble will occur; perhaps in alternative energy?
In conclusion, while the near-term prospects of the Dollar are surprisingly bright, the long-term prognosis is less so. There is no indication that the structural weaknesses in the US economy that led to the credit crisis and the multi-year decline in the USD that preceded it, will abate following its resolution. The future is inherently unpredictable, but I would expect the Dollar to continue declining once the global economy is back on track, perhaps in 2010.
In the short-term, I would argue the answer is yes. The bubbles in the various sectors of commodity markets seem to have partially deflated, with oil and certain food staples well below the record highs they touched earlier in the year. As a result, inflation may soon begin to abate, and return to a comfortable level as early as 2009. More importantly, the US economy was among the first to be affected by the credit and real estate crises. Some analysts have argued that the worst developments have already come to pass. The crisis has since spread to the global economy, with other countries sharing in some of the burden. The result is that the US economic and monetary cycle is probably ahead of most of its peers. Accordingly, by the time the full impact of the crisis is felt by the rest of the world, the US should firmly be on the path to recovery. As other Central Banks move to ease their respective monetary policies, the Fed should be in a position to hike rates, providing further support for the Dollar.
As a result of this belief, US capital markets have received a sudden inflow of capital. This trend has been further buoyed by the notion that the US is the safest place to invest in times of crisis is gaining traction among investors. If the credit crisis continues to spread, this notion will no doubt be reinforced.
The long-term picture is of course more nuanced. The US will hardly emerge from the current crisis unscathed, and the ultimate cost of the credit crisis could exceed $1 Trillion. In addition, the US is unlikely to be shamed into changing its nasty habit of spending more than it saves. Accordingly, the twin deficits, those permanent thorns in the side of the Dollar, will probably persist. In addition, recent history suggests that investors are slow to absorb the lesson that There is No Such Thing as a Free Lunch. Despite the horrible collapse of the dot-com bubble, investors piled willy-nilly into the real estate market, with the result speaking for itself. Analysts are already speculating where the next bubble will occur; perhaps in alternative energy?
In conclusion, while the near-term prospects of the Dollar are surprisingly bright, the long-term prognosis is less so. There is no indication that the structural weaknesses in the US economy that led to the credit crisis and the multi-year decline in the USD that preceded it, will abate following its resolution. The future is inherently unpredictable, but I would expect the Dollar to continue declining once the global economy is back on track, perhaps in 2010.
The Conspiracy of Intervention
Yesterday, the Forex Blog published a commentary piece exploring the rally in the Dollar that is currently under way. While the rally is strongly grounded in fundamentals (falling commodity prices, the spread of the credit crisis to the rest of the world), some traders are nonetheless crying foul. They claim that the European Central Bank (with or without the assistance of the US) furtively intervened in forex markets to the tune of 10 Billion Euros. Even if their claim is true, it is unlikely to have meaningfully contributed to the Dollar rally, since the amount in question is quite small. Central Bank intervention would require an expenditure of at least $100 Billion to be even partially successful. Japan, for example, has spent nearly $1 Trillion (if its foreign exchange reserves are any indication) holding down the Yen over the last decade. Besides, the Dollar rally is unsurprising, given certain recent economic developments and the benefit of hindsight. Minyanville.com reports:
Whenever global liquidity tightens relatively speaking, it is very US$ supportive. Obviously, there are always time lags between economic events until the the market perceives them. So as a result of weak demand in the US, lower imports, the demand for oil declines, and that led to a tightening of global liquidity which led to the strong dollar
Whenever global liquidity tightens relatively speaking, it is very US$ supportive. Obviously, there are always time lags between economic events until the the market perceives them. So as a result of weak demand in the US, lower imports, the demand for oil declines, and that led to a tightening of global liquidity which led to the strong dollar
Euro Hurt by Slowing Economy, Inflation
The Euro has dropped almost 10% against the Dollar in a matter of mere weeks and everyone is wondering why. Setting aside the factors which favor the Dollar generally (irrespective of the Euro) because they were explored in previous posts, let’s instead examine those factors weighing specifically in the Euro. First, the recent decline in commodity prices is causing European inflation to abate. The Euro had previously derived significant support from the ECB’s hawkish stance towards fighting inflation. With lower prices, however, the need for further rate hikes may have evaporated. Second, the Euro-zone economy is looking increasingly fragile. Based on the most recent data, it actually contracted in the second quarter. Truth be told, the ECB hasn’t yet turned its attention from inflation to the economy, but if both prices and economic growth continue to slow, the Central Bank may be forced to loosen its monetary policy. In fact, the perceived inevitability of this fate may already be propelling traders to dump the Euro. Money and Markets reports:
While upping his concern for the euro economy, European Central Bank President Trichet has maintained his focus on rising prices. The latest predictions…however, point towards inflation having already peaked…
While upping his concern for the euro economy, European Central Bank President Trichet has maintained his focus on rising prices. The latest predictions…however, point towards inflation having already peaked…
An End to the Oil-Dollar Spiral?
Over the last few years, the inverse relationship between the price of oil and the value of the US Dollar has been remarkable. As the Dollar has fallen to record lows, oil has risen to record highs. Now, with a massive Dollar rally underway, the price of oil has virtually collapsed. This relationship is understandable, since expensive oil contributes to the US trade deficit and crimps the economy, while the weaker Dollar, in turn, drives oil-producing countries to charge more in Dollar terms for their oil so that the price remains constant in absolute terms.
However, there are signs that this link may be coming to an end. Hedge funds, which are famous for spotting such trends and riding them to profitability, are winding down their long/short positions in currency and commodity prices because such strategies have evidently become unprofitable. Apparently, analysts and traders expect other fundamental factors to assume control over the price of oil and the Dollar. Namely, the still-unfolding credit crisis and the projected long-term supply/demand imbalance in energy markets will become more relevant. In short, don’t expect a further drop in the price of oil to necessarily help the Dollar, and vice versa.
However, there are signs that this link may be coming to an end. Hedge funds, which are famous for spotting such trends and riding them to profitability, are winding down their long/short positions in currency and commodity prices because such strategies have evidently become unprofitable. Apparently, analysts and traders expect other fundamental factors to assume control over the price of oil and the Dollar. Namely, the still-unfolding credit crisis and the projected long-term supply/demand imbalance in energy markets will become more relevant. In short, don’t expect a further drop in the price of oil to necessarily help the Dollar, and vice versa.
Australia, New Zealand to Lower Rates
When the credit crisis kicked off in 2007, many online forex traders and economic analysts quietly began to circulate the theory of "decoupling," which asserted the global economy was strong enough to weather a downturn in the US economy. In other words, it was expected that the credit crisis would be contained within the US, and the rest of the world would plod along, unaffected. This notion now appears to be completely without merit, except in a few isolated cases.
Instead, economies from Europe to Asia are sinking, and sinking fast. Some economies, namely Japan and Germany, have even begun to contract! Canada and Australia may slide into recession, regardless of what happens in commodity markets. Within this context, the Dollar’s 10% rally is not much of a mystery. In other words, this rally is probably more a function of economic weakness in other countries than of US economic strength. In addition, the end of de-coupling works both ways; a global economic downturn could further harm the US. A wave of negative economic data and/or the next round of debt write-downs could send the Dollar spiraling downwards. The Telegraph reports:
We are not witnessing a dollar rally so much as a collapse in European and commodity currencies. The race to the bottom has begun in earnest.
Instead, economies from Europe to Asia are sinking, and sinking fast. Some economies, namely Japan and Germany, have even begun to contract! Canada and Australia may slide into recession, regardless of what happens in commodity markets. Within this context, the Dollar’s 10% rally is not much of a mystery. In other words, this rally is probably more a function of economic weakness in other countries than of US economic strength. In addition, the end of de-coupling works both ways; a global economic downturn could further harm the US. A wave of negative economic data and/or the next round of debt write-downs could send the Dollar spiraling downwards. The Telegraph reports:
We are not witnessing a dollar rally so much as a collapse in European and commodity currencies. The race to the bottom has begun in earnest.
Friday, August 14, 2009
Structure and features Of Non-deliverable forward Forex
An NDF is a short-term, cash-settled currency forward between two counterparties. On the contracted settlement date, the profit or loss is adjusted between the two counterparties based on the difference between the contracted NDF rate and the prevailing spot FX rates on an agreed notional amount.
The features of an NDF include:
the notional amount: This is the "face value" of the NDF, which is agreed between the two counterparties. It should again be noted that there is never any intention to exchange the notional amounts in the two currencies
the fixing date: This is the day and time whereby the comparison between the NDF rate and the prevailing spot rate is made.
the settlement (or delivery) date: This is the day when the difference is paid or received. Depending on the currencies dealt, the fixing date is one or two good business days before the settlement date.
the contracted NDF rate: This is the rate agreed between the two counterparties on the transaction date, and is essentially the outright forward rate of the currencies dealt.
the prevailing spot rate: The fixing spot rate on the fixing date is usually provided by the central bank, and is commonly calculated by calling a number of dealers in the market for a quote at a specified time of day, and taking the average. The exact method of determining the fixing rate will be agreed when a trade is initiated, but most NDF markets have their own conventions.
Because an NDF is a cash-settled instrument, the notional amount is never exchanged. The only exchange of cash flows is the difference between the NDF rate and the prevailing spot market rate that is exchanged on the settlement date.
Consequently, NDFs are "non-cash" products, which are off-the-balance-sheet and as the principal sums do not move, possess much lower counter-party risks. NDFs are committed short-term instruments; both counterparties are committed and are obliged to honor the deal. Nevertheless, either counterparty can cancel an existing contract by entering into another offsetting deal at the prevailing market rate.
The features of an NDF include:
the notional amount: This is the "face value" of the NDF, which is agreed between the two counterparties. It should again be noted that there is never any intention to exchange the notional amounts in the two currencies
the fixing date: This is the day and time whereby the comparison between the NDF rate and the prevailing spot rate is made.
the settlement (or delivery) date: This is the day when the difference is paid or received. Depending on the currencies dealt, the fixing date is one or two good business days before the settlement date.
the contracted NDF rate: This is the rate agreed between the two counterparties on the transaction date, and is essentially the outright forward rate of the currencies dealt.
the prevailing spot rate: The fixing spot rate on the fixing date is usually provided by the central bank, and is commonly calculated by calling a number of dealers in the market for a quote at a specified time of day, and taking the average. The exact method of determining the fixing rate will be agreed when a trade is initiated, but most NDF markets have their own conventions.
Because an NDF is a cash-settled instrument, the notional amount is never exchanged. The only exchange of cash flows is the difference between the NDF rate and the prevailing spot market rate that is exchanged on the settlement date.
Consequently, NDFs are "non-cash" products, which are off-the-balance-sheet and as the principal sums do not move, possess much lower counter-party risks. NDFs are committed short-term instruments; both counterparties are committed and are obliged to honor the deal. Nevertheless, either counterparty can cancel an existing contract by entering into another offsetting deal at the prevailing market rate.
Market Of Non-deliverable forward Forex
The NDF market is an over-the-counter market. NDFs began to trade actively in the 1990s. NDF markets developed for emerging markets with capital controls, where the currencies could not be delivered offshore. Most NDFs are cash settled in US dollars.
The more active banks quote NDFs from between one month to one year, although some would quote up to two years upon request. The most commonly traded NDF tenors are IMM dates, but banks also offer odd-dated NDFs. NDFs are typically quoted with the USD as the reference currency, and the settlement amount is also in USD.
The more active banks quote NDFs from between one month to one year, although some would quote up to two years upon request. The most commonly traded NDF tenors are IMM dates, but banks also offer odd-dated NDFs. NDFs are typically quoted with the USD as the reference currency, and the settlement amount is also in USD.
Non-deliverable forward Forex
In finance, a non-deliverable forward (NDF) is an outright forward or futures contract in which counterparties settle the difference between the contracted NDF price or rate and the prevailing spot price or rate on an agreed notional amount. It is used in various markets such as foreign exchange and commodities. NDFs are prevalent in some countries where forward FX trading has been banned by the government (usually as a means to prevent exchange rate volatility).
History Of Linked exchange rate
As a response to the Black Saturday crisis in 1983, the linked exchange rate system was adopted in Hong Kong on October 17, 1983 through the currency board system. The redemption of certificates of indebtedness (for backing the banknotes) were sent out by note-issuing banks to peg the domestic currency against the US dollar at an internal fixed rate of HKD $7.80 = USD $1.
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), Hong Kong's de facto central bank, authorised note-issuing banks are to issue banknotes. These banks are required to have the same amount of USD to issue banknotes. The HKMA guarantees to exchange USD into HKD, or vice versa, at the rate of 7.80. When the market rate is below 7.80, the banks will convert USD for HKD from the HKMA, HKD supply will be increased, and the market rate will climb back to 7.80. The same mechanism also works when the market rate is above 7.80, and the banks will convert HKD for USD.
In practice, the HKMA also set a lower limit at 7.80 (7.85 as an upper limit and 7.75 as a lower limit since May 18, 2005) for the HKD to flow within. The HKMA will buy or sell HKD in the market when the exchange rate is at (or extremely close) the lower limit and upper limit respectively. The HKD is backed by one of the world's largest foreign exchange reserves, which is several times the amount of money supplied in circulation.
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), Hong Kong's de facto central bank, authorised note-issuing banks are to issue banknotes. These banks are required to have the same amount of USD to issue banknotes. The HKMA guarantees to exchange USD into HKD, or vice versa, at the rate of 7.80. When the market rate is below 7.80, the banks will convert USD for HKD from the HKMA, HKD supply will be increased, and the market rate will climb back to 7.80. The same mechanism also works when the market rate is above 7.80, and the banks will convert HKD for USD.
In practice, the HKMA also set a lower limit at 7.80 (7.85 as an upper limit and 7.75 as a lower limit since May 18, 2005) for the HKD to flow within. The HKMA will buy or sell HKD in the market when the exchange rate is at (or extremely close) the lower limit and upper limit respectively. The HKD is backed by one of the world's largest foreign exchange reserves, which is several times the amount of money supplied in circulation.
Linked exchange rate
A linked exchange rate system is a type of exchange rate regime to link the exchange rate of a currency to another. It is the exchange rate system implemented in Hong Kong to stabilise the exchange rate between the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) and the United States dollar (USD). The Macao pataca (MOP) is similarly linked to the Hong Kong dollar.
Unlike a fixed exchange rate system, the government or central bank does not actively interfere in the foreign exchange market by controlling supply and demand of the currency in order to influence the exchange rate. The exchange rate is stabilised by a mechanism.
Unlike a fixed exchange rate system, the government or central bank does not actively interfere in the foreign exchange market by controlling supply and demand of the currency in order to influence the exchange rate. The exchange rate is stabilised by a mechanism.
Fear of floating (Floating exchange rate)
A floating exchange rate or fluctuating exchange rate is a type of exchange rate regime wherein a currency's value is allowed to fluctuate according to the foreign exchange market. A currency that uses a floating exchange rate is known as a floating currency. It is not possible for a developing country to maintain the stability in the rate of exchange for its currency in the exchange market. There are two options open for them- Let the exchange rate be allowed to fluctuate in the open market according to the market conditions, or An equilibrium rate may be fixed to be adopted and attempts, should be made to maintain it as far as possible. But, if there is a fundamental change in the circumstances, the rate should be changed accordingly. The rate of exchange under the first alternative is know as fluctuating rate of exchange and under second alternative, it is called flexible rate of exchange. In the modern economic conditions, the flexible rate of exchange system is more appropriate as it does not hamper the foreign trade. There are economists who think that, in most circumstances, floating exchange rates are preferable to fixed exchange rates. As floating exchange rates automatically adjust, they enable a country to dampen the impact of shocks and foreign business cycles, and to preempt the possibility of having a balance of payments crisis. However, in certain situations, fixed exchange rates may be preferable for their greater stability and certainty. This may not necessarily be true, considering the results of countries that attempt to keep the prices of their currency "strong" or "high" relative to others, such as the UK or the Southeast Asia countries before the Asian currency crisis. The debate of making a choice between fixed and floating exchange rate regimes is set forth by Mundell-Fleming model, which argues that an economy cannot simultaneously maintain a fixed exchange rate, free capital movement, and an independent monetary policy. It can choose any two for control, and leave third to the market forces.
In cases of extreme appreciation or depreciation, a central bank will normally intervene to stabilize the currency. Thus, the exchange rate regimes of floating currencies may more technically be known as a managed float. A central bank might, for instance, allow a currency price to float freely between an upper and lower bound, a price "ceiling" and "floor". Management by the central bank may take the form of buying or selling large lots in order to provide price support or resistance, or, in the case of some national currencies, there may be legal penalties for trading outside these bounds.
In cases of extreme appreciation or depreciation, a central bank will normally intervene to stabilize the currency. Thus, the exchange rate regimes of floating currencies may more technically be known as a managed float. A central bank might, for instance, allow a currency price to float freely between an upper and lower bound, a price "ceiling" and "floor". Management by the central bank may take the form of buying or selling large lots in order to provide price support or resistance, or, in the case of some national currencies, there may be legal penalties for trading outside these bounds.
Fixed exchange rate
Fixed rates are those that have direct convertibility towards another currency. In case of a separate currency, also known as a currency board arrangement, the domestic currency is backed one to one by foreign reserves. A pegged currency with very small bands (< 1%) and countries that have adopted another country's currency and abandoned its own also fall under this category.
Pegged float
Here, the currency is pegged to some band or value, either fixed or periodically adjusted. Pegged floats are:
Crawling bands: the rate is allowed to fluctuate in a band around a central value, which is adjusted periodically. This is done at a preannounced rate or in a controlled way following economic indicators.
Crawling pegs: Here, the rate itself is fixed, and adjusted as above.
Pegged with horizontal bands: The currency is allowed to fluctuate in a fixed band (bigger than 1%) around a central rate.
Crawling bands: the rate is allowed to fluctuate in a band around a central value, which is adjusted periodically. This is done at a preannounced rate or in a controlled way following economic indicators.
Crawling pegs: Here, the rate itself is fixed, and adjusted as above.
Pegged with horizontal bands: The currency is allowed to fluctuate in a fixed band (bigger than 1%) around a central rate.
Floating exchange rate
Floating rates are the most common exchange rate regime today. For example, the dollar, euro, yen, and British pound all float. However, since central banks frequently intervene to avoid excessive appreciation or depreciation, these regimes are often called managed float or a dirty float.
Exchange rate regime
The exchange rate regime is the way a country manages its currency in respect to foreign currencies and the foreign exchange market. It is closely related to monetary policy and the two are generally dependent on many of the same factors.
The basic types are a floating exchange rate, where the market dictates the movements of the exchange rate, a pegged float, where the central bank keeps the rate from deviating too far from a target band or value, and the fixed exchange rate, which ties the currency to another currency, mostly more widespread currencies such as the U.S. dollar or the euro.
The basic types are a floating exchange rate, where the market dictates the movements of the exchange rate, a pegged float, where the central bank keeps the rate from deviating too far from a target band or value, and the fixed exchange rate, which ties the currency to another currency, mostly more widespread currencies such as the U.S. dollar or the euro.
Balance of payments model
This model holds that a foreign exchange rate must be at its equilibrium level - the rate which produces a stable current account balance. A nation with a trade deficit will experience reduction in its foreign exchange reserves which ultimately lowers (depreciates) the value of its currency. The cheaper currency renders the nation's goods (exports) more affordable in the global market place while making imports more expensive. After an intermediate period, imports are forced down and exports rise, thus stabilizing the trade balance and the currency towards equilibrium.
Like PPP, the balance of payments model focuses largely on tradable goods and services, ignoring the increasing role of global capital flows. In other words, money is not only chasing goods and services, but to a larger extent, financial assets such as stocks and bonds. Their flows go into the capital account item of the balance of payments, thus, balancing the deficit in the current account. The increase in capital flows has given rise to the asset market model.
Like PPP, the balance of payments model focuses largely on tradable goods and services, ignoring the increasing role of global capital flows. In other words, money is not only chasing goods and services, but to a larger extent, financial assets such as stocks and bonds. Their flows go into the capital account item of the balance of payments, thus, balancing the deficit in the current account. The increase in capital flows has given rise to the asset market model.
Bilateral vs. effective exchange rate
Bilateral exchange rate involves a currency pair, while effective exchange rate is weighted average of a basket of foreign currencies, and it can be viewed as an overall measure of the country's external competitiveness. A nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) is weighted with the inverse of the asymptotic trade weights. A real effective exchange rate (REER) adjust NEER by appropriate foreign price level and deflates by the home country price level. Compared to NEER, a GDP weighted effective exchange rate might be more appropriate considering the global investment phenomenon.
Nominal and real exchange rates
The nominal exchange rate e is the price in foreign currency of one unit of a domestic currency.
The real exchange rate (RER) is defined as , where Pf is the foreign price level and P the domestic price level.
The RER is based on the GDP deflator measurement of the price level in the domestic and foreign countries (P,Pf), which is arbitrarily set equal to 1 in a given base year. Therefore, the level of the RER is arbitrarily set, depending on which year is chosen as the base year for the GDP deflator of two countries. The changes of the RER are instead informative on the evolution over time of the relative price of a unit of GDP in the foreign country in terms of GDP units of the domestic country. If all goods were freely tradable, and foreign and domestic residents purchased identical baskets of goods, purchasing power parity (PPP) would hold for the GDP deflators of the two countries, and the RER would be constant and equal to one.
The real exchange rate (RER) is defined as , where Pf is the foreign price level and P the domestic price level.
The RER is based on the GDP deflator measurement of the price level in the domestic and foreign countries (P,Pf), which is arbitrarily set equal to 1 in a given base year. Therefore, the level of the RER is arbitrarily set, depending on which year is chosen as the base year for the GDP deflator of two countries. The changes of the RER are instead informative on the evolution over time of the relative price of a unit of GDP in the foreign country in terms of GDP units of the domestic country. If all goods were freely tradable, and foreign and domestic residents purchased identical baskets of goods, purchasing power parity (PPP) would hold for the GDP deflators of the two countries, and the RER would be constant and equal to one.
Quotations
An exchange system quotation is given by stating the number of units of "quote currency" (price currency, payment currency) that can be exchanged for one unit of "base currency" (unit currency, transaction currency). For example, in a quotation that says the EUR/USD exchange rate is 1.4320 (1.4320 USD per EUR), the quote currency is USD and the base currency is EUR.
There is a market convention that determines which is the base currency and which is the term currency. In most parts of the world, the order is: EUR – GBP – AUD – NZD – USD – others. Thus if you are doing a conversion from EUR into AUD, EUR is the base currency, AUD is the term currency and the exchange rate tells you how many Australian dollars you would pay or receive for 1 euro. Cyprus and Malta which were quoted as the base to the USD and others were recently removed from this list when they joined the euro. In some areas of Europe and in the non-professional market in the UK, EUR and GBP are reversed so that GBP is quoted as the base currency to the euro. In order to determine which is the base currency where both currencies are not listed (i.e. both are "other"), market convention is to use the base currency which gives an exchange rate greater than 1.000. This avoids rounding issues and exchange rates being quoted to more than 4 decimal places. There are some exceptions to this rule e.g. the Japanese often quote their currency as the base to other currencies.
Quotes using a country's home currency as the price currency (e.g., EUR 0.63 = USD 1.00 in the euro zone) are known as direct quotation or price quotation (from that country's perspective) and are used by most countries.
Quotes using a country's home currency as the unit currency (e.g., EUR 1.00 = USD 1.58 in the euro zone) are known as indirect quotation or quantity quotation and are used in British newspapers and are also common in Australia, New Zealand and the eurozone.
direct quotation: 1 foreign currency unit = x home currency units
indirect quotation: 1 home currency unit = x foreign currency units
Note that, using direct quotation, if the home currency is strengthening (i.e., appreciating, or becoming more valuable) then the exchange rate number decreases. Conversely if the foreign currency is strengthening, the exchange rate number increases and the home currency is depreciating.
Market convention from the early 1980s to 2006 was that most currency pairs were quoted to 4 decimal places for spot transactions and up to 6 decimal places for forward outrights or swaps. (The fourth decimal place is usually referred to as a "pip"). An exception to this was exchange rates with a value of less than 1.000 which were usually quoted to 5 or 6 decimal places. Although there is no fixed rule, exchange rates with a value greater than around 20 were usually quoted to 3 decimal places and currencies with a value greater than 80 were quoted to 2 decimal places. Currencies over 5000 were usually quoted with no decimal places (e.g. the former Turkish Lira). e.g. (GBPOMR : 0.765432 - EURUSD : 1.5877 - GBPBEF : 58.234 - EURJPY : 165.29). In other words, quotes are given with 5 digits. Where rates are below 1, quotes frequently include 5 decimal places.
In 2005 Barclays Capital broke with convention by offering spot exchange rates with 5 or 6 decimal places on their electronic dealing platform. The contraction of spreads (the difference between the bid and offer rates) arguably necessitated finer pricing and gave the banks the ability to try and win transaction on multibank trading platforms where all banks may otherwise have been quoting the same price. A number of other banks have now followed this.
There is a market convention that determines which is the base currency and which is the term currency. In most parts of the world, the order is: EUR – GBP – AUD – NZD – USD – others. Thus if you are doing a conversion from EUR into AUD, EUR is the base currency, AUD is the term currency and the exchange rate tells you how many Australian dollars you would pay or receive for 1 euro. Cyprus and Malta which were quoted as the base to the USD and others were recently removed from this list when they joined the euro. In some areas of Europe and in the non-professional market in the UK, EUR and GBP are reversed so that GBP is quoted as the base currency to the euro. In order to determine which is the base currency where both currencies are not listed (i.e. both are "other"), market convention is to use the base currency which gives an exchange rate greater than 1.000. This avoids rounding issues and exchange rates being quoted to more than 4 decimal places. There are some exceptions to this rule e.g. the Japanese often quote their currency as the base to other currencies.
Quotes using a country's home currency as the price currency (e.g., EUR 0.63 = USD 1.00 in the euro zone) are known as direct quotation or price quotation (from that country's perspective) and are used by most countries.
Quotes using a country's home currency as the unit currency (e.g., EUR 1.00 = USD 1.58 in the euro zone) are known as indirect quotation or quantity quotation and are used in British newspapers and are also common in Australia, New Zealand and the eurozone.
direct quotation: 1 foreign currency unit = x home currency units
indirect quotation: 1 home currency unit = x foreign currency units
Note that, using direct quotation, if the home currency is strengthening (i.e., appreciating, or becoming more valuable) then the exchange rate number decreases. Conversely if the foreign currency is strengthening, the exchange rate number increases and the home currency is depreciating.
Market convention from the early 1980s to 2006 was that most currency pairs were quoted to 4 decimal places for spot transactions and up to 6 decimal places for forward outrights or swaps. (The fourth decimal place is usually referred to as a "pip"). An exception to this was exchange rates with a value of less than 1.000 which were usually quoted to 5 or 6 decimal places. Although there is no fixed rule, exchange rates with a value greater than around 20 were usually quoted to 3 decimal places and currencies with a value greater than 80 were quoted to 2 decimal places. Currencies over 5000 were usually quoted with no decimal places (e.g. the former Turkish Lira). e.g. (GBPOMR : 0.765432 - EURUSD : 1.5877 - GBPBEF : 58.234 - EURJPY : 165.29). In other words, quotes are given with 5 digits. Where rates are below 1, quotes frequently include 5 decimal places.
In 2005 Barclays Capital broke with convention by offering spot exchange rates with 5 or 6 decimal places on their electronic dealing platform. The contraction of spreads (the difference between the bid and offer rates) arguably necessitated finer pricing and gave the banks the ability to try and win transaction on multibank trading platforms where all banks may otherwise have been quoting the same price. A number of other banks have now followed this.
Exchange rate
In finance, the exchange rates (also known as the foreign-exchange rate, forex rate or FX rate) between two currencies specifies how much one currency is worth in terms of the other. It is the value of a foreign nation’s currency in terms of the home nation’s currency. For example an exchange rate of 95 Japanese yen (JPY, ¥) to the United States dollar (USD, $) means that JPY 95 is worth the same as USD 1. The foreign exchange market is one of the largest markets in the world. By some estimates, about 3.2 trillion USD worth of currency changes hands every day.
The spot exchange rate refers to the current exchange rate. The forward exchange rate refers to an exchange rate that is quoted and traded today but for delivery and payment on a specific future date.
The spot exchange rate refers to the current exchange rate. The forward exchange rate refers to an exchange rate that is quoted and traded today but for delivery and payment on a specific future date.
Tables of historical exchange rates to the USD
Listed below is a table of historical exchange rates relative to the U.S. Dollar, at present the most widely traded currency in the world. An exchange rate represents the value of one currency in another. An exchange rate between two currencies fluctuates over time. The value of a currency relative to a third currency may be obtained by dividing one U.S. dollar rate by another. For example if there are ¥120 to the dollar and €1.2 to the dollar then the number of yen per euro is 120/1.2 = 100.
The magnitude of the numbers in the list do not indicate, by themselves, the strength or weakness of a particular currency. For example the U.S. Dollar could be rebased tomorrow so that 1 new dollar was worth 100 old dollars. Then all the numbers in the table would be multiplied by one hundred, but it does not mean all the world's currencies just got weaker. However it is useful to look at the variation over time of a particular exchange rate. If the number consistently increases through time, then it is a strong indication that the economy of the country or countries using that currency are in a less robust state than that of the United States (see e.g. the Turkish Lira). The exchange rates of advanced economies such as that Japan or Hong Kong against the dollar tend to fluctuate up and down, representing much shorter-term relative economic strengths, rather than move consistently in a particular direction.
The data is taken form varying times of the year or may be the average for the whole year. Some of the data for the years 1997-2002 refers to the rate on, or close to, 1 January of that year. Some of the data for 2003 refers to rates on May 28 for countries beginning with A-E, and June 2 for countries listed F-Z. Exchange rates can vary considerably even within a year and so current rates may differ markedly from those shown here. Caveat lector.
The magnitude of the numbers in the list do not indicate, by themselves, the strength or weakness of a particular currency. For example the U.S. Dollar could be rebased tomorrow so that 1 new dollar was worth 100 old dollars. Then all the numbers in the table would be multiplied by one hundred, but it does not mean all the world's currencies just got weaker. However it is useful to look at the variation over time of a particular exchange rate. If the number consistently increases through time, then it is a strong indication that the economy of the country or countries using that currency are in a less robust state than that of the United States (see e.g. the Turkish Lira). The exchange rates of advanced economies such as that Japan or Hong Kong against the dollar tend to fluctuate up and down, representing much shorter-term relative economic strengths, rather than move consistently in a particular direction.
The data is taken form varying times of the year or may be the average for the whole year. Some of the data for the years 1997-2002 refers to the rate on, or close to, 1 January of that year. Some of the data for 2003 refers to rates on May 28 for countries beginning with A-E, and June 2 for countries listed F-Z. Exchange rates can vary considerably even within a year and so current rates may differ markedly from those shown here. Caveat lector.
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Determinants of FX Rates
See also: exchange rates
The following theories explain the fluctuations in FX rates in a floating exchange rate regime (In a fixed exchange rate regime, FX rates are decided by its government):
(a) International parity conditions viz; purchasing power parity, interest rate parity, Domestic Fisher effect, International Fisher effect. Though to some extent the above theories provide logical explanation for the fluctuations in exchange rates, yet these theories falter as they are based on challengeable assumptions [e.g., free flow of goods, services and capital] which seldom hold true in the real world.
(b) Balance of payments model (see exchange rate). This model, however, focuses largely on tradable goods and services, ignoring the increasing role of global capital flows. It failed to provide any explanation for continuous appreciation of dollar during 1980s and most part of 1990s in face of soaring US current account deficit.
(c) Asset market model (see exchange rate) views currencies as an important asset class for constructing investment portfolios. Assets prices are influenced mostly by people’s willingness to hold the existing quantities of assets, which in turn depends on their expectations on the future worth of these assets. The asset market model of exchange rate determination states that “the exchange rate between two currencies represents the price that just balances the relative supplies of, and demand for, assets denominated in those currencies.”
None of the models developed so far succeed to explain FX rates levels and volatility in the longer time frames. For shorter time frames (less than a few days) algorithm can be devised to predict prices. Large and small institutions and professional individual traders have made consistent profits from it. It is understood from above models that many macroeconomic factors affect the exchange rates and in the end currency prices are a result of dual forces of demand and supply. The world's currency markets can be viewed as a huge melting pot: in a large and ever-changing mix of current events, supply and demand factors are constantly shifting, and the price of one currency in relation to another shifts accordingly. No other market encompasses (and distills) as much of what is going on in the world at any given time as foreign exchange.
Supply and demand for any given currency, and thus its value, are not influenced by any single element, but rather by several. These elements generally fall into three categories: economic factors, political conditions and market psychology.
The following theories explain the fluctuations in FX rates in a floating exchange rate regime (In a fixed exchange rate regime, FX rates are decided by its government):
(a) International parity conditions viz; purchasing power parity, interest rate parity, Domestic Fisher effect, International Fisher effect. Though to some extent the above theories provide logical explanation for the fluctuations in exchange rates, yet these theories falter as they are based on challengeable assumptions [e.g., free flow of goods, services and capital] which seldom hold true in the real world.
(b) Balance of payments model (see exchange rate). This model, however, focuses largely on tradable goods and services, ignoring the increasing role of global capital flows. It failed to provide any explanation for continuous appreciation of dollar during 1980s and most part of 1990s in face of soaring US current account deficit.
(c) Asset market model (see exchange rate) views currencies as an important asset class for constructing investment portfolios. Assets prices are influenced mostly by people’s willingness to hold the existing quantities of assets, which in turn depends on their expectations on the future worth of these assets. The asset market model of exchange rate determination states that “the exchange rate between two currencies represents the price that just balances the relative supplies of, and demand for, assets denominated in those currencies.”
None of the models developed so far succeed to explain FX rates levels and volatility in the longer time frames. For shorter time frames (less than a few days) algorithm can be devised to predict prices. Large and small institutions and professional individual traders have made consistent profits from it. It is understood from above models that many macroeconomic factors affect the exchange rates and in the end currency prices are a result of dual forces of demand and supply. The world's currency markets can be viewed as a huge melting pot: in a large and ever-changing mix of current events, supply and demand factors are constantly shifting, and the price of one currency in relation to another shifts accordingly. No other market encompasses (and distills) as much of what is going on in the world at any given time as foreign exchange.
Supply and demand for any given currency, and thus its value, are not influenced by any single element, but rather by several. These elements generally fall into three categories: economic factors, political conditions and market psychology.
Forex Trading characteristics
There is no unified or centrally cleared market for the majority of FX trades, and there is very little cross-border regulation. Due to the over-the-counter (OTC) nature of currency markets, there are rather a number of interconnected marketplaces, where different currencies instruments are traded. This implies that there is not a single exchange rate but rather a number of different rates (prices), depending on what bank or market maker is trading, and where it is. In practice the rates are often very close, otherwise they could be exploited by arbitrageurs instantaneously. Due to London's dominance in the market, a particular currency's quoted price is usually the London market price. A joint venture of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Reuters, called Fxmarketspace opened in 2007 and aspired but failed to the role of a central market clearing mechanism.
The main trading center is London, but New York, Tokyo, Hong Kong and Singapore are all important centers as well. Banks throughout the world participate. Currency trading happens continuously throughout the day; as the Asian trading session ends, the European session begins, followed by the North American session and then back to the Asian session, excluding weekends.
Fluctuations in exchange rates are usually caused by actual monetary flows as well as by expectations of changes in monetary flows caused by changes in gross domestic product (GDP) growth, inflation (purchasing power parity theory), interest rates (interest rate parity, Domestic Fisher effect, International Fisher effect), budget and trade deficits or surpluses, large cross-border M&A deals and other macroeconomic conditions. Major news is released publicly, often on scheduled dates, so many people have access to the same news at the same time. However, the large banks have an important advantage; they can see their customers' order flow.
Currencies are traded against one another. Each pair of currencies thus constitutes an individual product and is traditionally noted XXX/YYY, where YYY is the ISO 4217 international three-letter code of the currency into which the price of one unit of XXX is expressed (called base currency). For instance, EUR/USD is the price of the euro expressed in US dollars, as in 1 euro = 1.5465 dollar. Out of convention, the first currency in the pair, the base currency, was the stronger currency at the creation of the pair. The second currency, counter currency, was the weaker currency at the creation of the pair.
The factors affecting XXX will affect both XXX/YYY and XXX/ZZZ. This causes positive currency correlation between XXX/YYY and XXX/ZZZ.
On the spot market, according to the BIS study, the most heavily traded products were:
EUR/USD: 27%
USD/JPY: 13%
GBP/USD (also called sterling or cable): 12%
and the US currency was involved in 86.3% of transactions, followed by the euro (37.0%), the yen (17.0%), and sterling (15.0%) (see table). Note that volume percentages should add up to 200%: 100% for all the sellers and 100% for all the buyers.
Trading in the euro has grown considerably since the currency's creation in January 1999, and how long the foreign exchange market will remain dollar-centered is open to debate. Until recently, trading the euro versus a non-European currency ZZZ would have usually involved two trades: EUR/USD and USD/ZZZ. The exception to this is EUR/JPY, which is an established traded currency pair in the interbank spot market. As the dollar's value has eroded during 2008, interest in using the euro as reference currency for prices in commodities (such as oil), as well as a larger component of foreign reserves by banks, has increased dramatically. Transactions in the currencies of commodity-producing countries, such as AUD, NZD, CAD, have also increased.
The main trading center is London, but New York, Tokyo, Hong Kong and Singapore are all important centers as well. Banks throughout the world participate. Currency trading happens continuously throughout the day; as the Asian trading session ends, the European session begins, followed by the North American session and then back to the Asian session, excluding weekends.
Fluctuations in exchange rates are usually caused by actual monetary flows as well as by expectations of changes in monetary flows caused by changes in gross domestic product (GDP) growth, inflation (purchasing power parity theory), interest rates (interest rate parity, Domestic Fisher effect, International Fisher effect), budget and trade deficits or surpluses, large cross-border M&A deals and other macroeconomic conditions. Major news is released publicly, often on scheduled dates, so many people have access to the same news at the same time. However, the large banks have an important advantage; they can see their customers' order flow.
Currencies are traded against one another. Each pair of currencies thus constitutes an individual product and is traditionally noted XXX/YYY, where YYY is the ISO 4217 international three-letter code of the currency into which the price of one unit of XXX is expressed (called base currency). For instance, EUR/USD is the price of the euro expressed in US dollars, as in 1 euro = 1.5465 dollar. Out of convention, the first currency in the pair, the base currency, was the stronger currency at the creation of the pair. The second currency, counter currency, was the weaker currency at the creation of the pair.
The factors affecting XXX will affect both XXX/YYY and XXX/ZZZ. This causes positive currency correlation between XXX/YYY and XXX/ZZZ.
On the spot market, according to the BIS study, the most heavily traded products were:
EUR/USD: 27%
USD/JPY: 13%
GBP/USD (also called sterling or cable): 12%
and the US currency was involved in 86.3% of transactions, followed by the euro (37.0%), the yen (17.0%), and sterling (15.0%) (see table). Note that volume percentages should add up to 200%: 100% for all the sellers and 100% for all the buyers.
Trading in the euro has grown considerably since the currency's creation in January 1999, and how long the foreign exchange market will remain dollar-centered is open to debate. Until recently, trading the euro versus a non-European currency ZZZ would have usually involved two trades: EUR/USD and USD/ZZZ. The exception to this is EUR/JPY, which is an established traded currency pair in the interbank spot market. As the dollar's value has eroded during 2008, interest in using the euro as reference currency for prices in commodities (such as oil), as well as a larger component of foreign reserves by banks, has increased dramatically. Transactions in the currencies of commodity-producing countries, such as AUD, NZD, CAD, have also increased.
Forex Money Transfer/Remittance Companies
Money transfer companies/remittance companies perform high-volume low-value transfers generally by economic migrants back to their home country. In 2007, the Aite Group estimated that there were $369 billion of remittances (an increase of 8% on the previous year). The four largest markets (India, China, Mexico and the Philippines) receive $95 billion. The largest and best known provider is Western Union with 345,000 agents globally.
Non-bank Foreign Exchange Companies
Non-bank foreign exchange companies offer currency exchange and international payments to private individuals and companies. These are also known as foreign exchange brokers but are distinct in that they do not offer speculative trading but currency exchange with payments. I.e., there is usually a physical delivery of currency to a bank account.
It is estimated that in the UK, 14% of currency transfers/payments are made via Foreign Exchange Companies. These companies' selling point is usually that they will offer better exchange rates or cheaper payments than the customer's bank. These companies differ from Money Transfer/Remittance Companies in that they generally offer higher-value services.
It is estimated that in the UK, 14% of currency transfers/payments are made via Foreign Exchange Companies. These companies' selling point is usually that they will offer better exchange rates or cheaper payments than the customer's bank. These companies differ from Money Transfer/Remittance Companies in that they generally offer higher-value services.
Retail foreign exchange brokers
There are two types of retail brokers offering the opportunity for speculative trading: retail foreign exchange brokers and market makers. Retail traders (individuals) are a small fraction of this market and may only participate indirectly through brokers or banks. Retail brokers, while largely controlled and regulated by the CFTC and NFA might be subject to foreign exchange scams. At present, the NFA and CFTC are imposing stricter requirements, particularly in relation to the amount of Net Capitalization required of its members. As a result many of the smaller, and perhaps questionable brokers are now gone. It is not widely understood that retail brokers and market makers typically trade against their clients and frequently take the other side of their trades. This can often create a potential conflict of interest and give rise to some of the unpleasant experiences some traders have had. A move toward NDD (No Dealing Desk) and STP (Straight Through Processing) has helped to resolve some of these concerns and restore trader confidence, but caution is still advised in ensuring that all is as it is presented.
Forex Investment management firms
Investment management firms (who typically manage large accounts on behalf of customers such as pension funds and endowments) use the foreign exchange market to facilitate transactions in foreign securities. For example, an investment manager bearing an international equity portfolio needs to purchase and sell several pairs of foreign currencies to pay for foreign securities purchases.
Some investment management firms also have more speculative specialist currency overlay operations, which manage clients' currency exposures with the aim of generating profits as well as limiting risk. Whilst the number of this type of specialist firms is quite small, many have a large value of assets under management (AUM), and hence can generate large trades.
Some investment management firms also have more speculative specialist currency overlay operations, which manage clients' currency exposures with the aim of generating profits as well as limiting risk. Whilst the number of this type of specialist firms is quite small, many have a large value of assets under management (AUM), and hence can generate large trades.
Forex Hedge funds as speculators
About 70% to 90%[citation needed] of the foreign exchange transactions are speculative. In other words, the person or institution that bought or sold the currency has no plan to actually take delivery of the currency in the end; rather, they were solely speculating on the movement of that particular currency. Hedge funds have gained a reputation for aggressive currency speculation since 1996. They control billions of dollars of equity and may borrow billions more, and thus may overwhelm intervention by central banks to support almost any currency, if the economic fundamentals are in the hedge funds' favor.
Forex Central banks
National central banks play an important role in the foreign exchange markets. They try to control the money supply, inflation, and/or interest rates and often have official or unofficial target rates for their currencies. They can use their often substantial foreign exchange reserves to stabilize the market. Milton Friedman argued that the best stabilization strategy would be for central banks to buy when the exchange rate is too low, and to sell when the rate is too high—that is, to trade for a profit based on their more precise information. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of central bank "stabilizing speculation" is doubtful because central banks do not go bankrupt if they make large losses, like other traders would, and there is no convincing evidence that they do make a profit trading.
The mere expectation or rumor of central bank intervention might be enough to stabilize a currency, but aggressive intervention might be used several times each year in countries with a dirty float currency regime. Central banks do not always achieve their objectives. The combined resources of the market can easily overwhelm any central bank. Several scenarios of this nature were seen in the 1992–93 ERM collapse, and in more recent times in Southeast Asia.
The mere expectation or rumor of central bank intervention might be enough to stabilize a currency, but aggressive intervention might be used several times each year in countries with a dirty float currency regime. Central banks do not always achieve their objectives. The combined resources of the market can easily overwhelm any central bank. Several scenarios of this nature were seen in the 1992–93 ERM collapse, and in more recent times in Southeast Asia.
Forex Commercial companies
An important part of this market comes from the financial activities of companies seeking foreign exchange to pay for goods or services. Commercial companies often trade fairly small amounts compared to those of banks or speculators, and their trades often have little short term impact on market rates. Nevertheless, trade flows are an important factor in the long-term direction of a currency's exchange rate. Some multinational companies can have an unpredictable impact when very large positions are covered due to exposures that are not widely known by other market participants.
Forex Banks
The interbank market caters for both the majority of commercial turnover and large amounts of speculative trading every day. A large bank may trade billions of dollars daily. Some of this trading is undertaken on behalf of customers, but much is conducted by proprietary desks, trading for the bank's own account. Until recently, foreign exchange brokers did large amounts of business, facilitating interbank trading and matching anonymous counterparts for small fees. Today, however, much of this business has moved on to more efficient electronic systems. The broker squawk box lets traders listen in on ongoing interbank trading and is heard in most trading rooms, but turnover is noticeably smaller than just a few years ago.
Forex Market participants
Unlike a stock market, where all participants have access to the same prices, the foreign exchange market is divided into levels of access. At the top is the inter-bank market, which is made up of the largest investment banking firms. Within the inter-bank market, spreads, which are the difference between the bid and ask prices, are razor sharp and usually unavailable, and not known to players outside the inner circle. The difference between the bid and ask prices widens (from 0-1 pip to 1-2 pips for some currencies such as the EUR). This is due to volume. If a trader can guarantee large numbers of transactions for large amounts, they can demand a smaller difference between the bid and ask price, which is referred to as a better spread. The levels of access that make up the foreign exchange market are determined by the size of the "line" (the amount of money with which they are trading). The top-tier inter-bank market accounts for 53% of all transactions. After that there are usually smaller investment banks, followed by large multi-national corporations (which need to hedge risk and pay employees in different countries), large hedge funds, and even some of the retail FX-metal market makers. According to Galati and Melvin, “Pension funds, insurance companies, mutual funds, and other institutional investors have played an increasingly important role in financial markets in general, and in FX markets in particular, since the early 2000s.” (2004) In addition, he notes, “Hedge funds have grown markedly over the 2001–2004 period in terms of both number and overall size” Central banks also participate in the foreign exchange market to align currencies to their economic needs.
Market size and liquidity
Presently, the foreign exchange market is one of the largest and most liquid financial markets in the world. Traders include large banks, central banks, currency speculators, corporations, governments, and other financial institutions. The average daily volume in the global foreign exchange and related markets is continuously growing. Daily turnover was reported to be over US$3.2 trillion in April 2007 by the Bank for International Settlements. Since then, the market has continued to grow. According to Euromoney's annual FX Poll, volumes grew a further 41% between 2007 and 2008.
Of the $3.98 trillion daily global turnover, trading in London accounted for around $1.36 trillion, or 34.1% of the total, making London by far the global center for foreign exchange. In second and third places respectively, trading in New York accounted for 16.6%, and Tokyo accounted for 6.0%.[4] In addition to "traditional" turnover, $2.1 trillion was traded in derivatives.
Exchange-traded FX futures contracts were introduced in 1972 at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and are actively traded relative to most other futures contracts.
Several other developed countries also permit the trading of FX derivative products (like currency futures and options on currency futures) on their exchanges. All these developed countries already have fully convertible capital accounts. Most emerging countries do not permit FX derivative products on their exchanges in view of prevalent controls on the capital accounts. However, a few select emerging countries (e.g., Korea, South Africa, India—; ) have already successfully experimented with the currency futures exchanges, despite having some controls on the capital account.
Of the $3.98 trillion daily global turnover, trading in London accounted for around $1.36 trillion, or 34.1% of the total, making London by far the global center for foreign exchange. In second and third places respectively, trading in New York accounted for 16.6%, and Tokyo accounted for 6.0%.[4] In addition to "traditional" turnover, $2.1 trillion was traded in derivatives.
Exchange-traded FX futures contracts were introduced in 1972 at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and are actively traded relative to most other futures contracts.
Several other developed countries also permit the trading of FX derivative products (like currency futures and options on currency futures) on their exchanges. All these developed countries already have fully convertible capital accounts. Most emerging countries do not permit FX derivative products on their exchanges in view of prevalent controls on the capital accounts. However, a few select emerging countries (e.g., Korea, South Africa, India—; ) have already successfully experimented with the currency futures exchanges, despite having some controls on the capital account.
Foreign exchange market
The foreign exchange market (currency, forex, or FX) trades currencies. It lets banks and other institutions easily buy and sell currencies.
The purpose of the foreign exchange market is to help international trade and investment. A foreign exchange market helps businesses convert one currency to another. For example, it permits a U.S. business to import European goods and pay Euros, even though the business's income is in U.S. dollars.
In a typical foreign exchange transaction a party purchases a quantity of one currency by paying a quantity of another currency. The modern foreign exchange market started forming during the 1970s when countries gradually switched to floating exchange rates from the previous exchange rate regime, which remained fixed as per the Bretton Woods system.
The foreign exchange market is unique because of
its trading volumes,
the extreme liquidity of the market,
its geographical dispersion,
its long trading hours: 24 hours a day except on weekends (from 22:00 UTC on Sunday until 22:00 UTC Friday),
the variety of factors that affect exchange rates.
the low margins of profit compared with other markets of fixed income (but profits can be high due to very large trading volumes)
the use of leverage
As such, it has been referred to as the market closest to the ideal perfect competition, notwithstanding market manipulation by central banks. According to the Bank for International Settlements,[2] average daily turnover in global foreign exchange markets is estimated at $3.98 trillion. Trading in the world's main financial markets accounted for $3.21 trillion of this. This approximately $3.21 trillion in main foreign exchange market turnover was broken down as follows:
$1.005 trillion in spot transactions
$362 billion in outright forwards
$1.714 trillion in foreign exchange swaps
$129 billion estimated gaps in reporting
The purpose of the foreign exchange market is to help international trade and investment. A foreign exchange market helps businesses convert one currency to another. For example, it permits a U.S. business to import European goods and pay Euros, even though the business's income is in U.S. dollars.
In a typical foreign exchange transaction a party purchases a quantity of one currency by paying a quantity of another currency. The modern foreign exchange market started forming during the 1970s when countries gradually switched to floating exchange rates from the previous exchange rate regime, which remained fixed as per the Bretton Woods system.
The foreign exchange market is unique because of
its trading volumes,
the extreme liquidity of the market,
its geographical dispersion,
its long trading hours: 24 hours a day except on weekends (from 22:00 UTC on Sunday until 22:00 UTC Friday),
the variety of factors that affect exchange rates.
the low margins of profit compared with other markets of fixed income (but profits can be high due to very large trading volumes)
the use of leverage
As such, it has been referred to as the market closest to the ideal perfect competition, notwithstanding market manipulation by central banks. According to the Bank for International Settlements,[2] average daily turnover in global foreign exchange markets is estimated at $3.98 trillion. Trading in the world's main financial markets accounted for $3.21 trillion of this. This approximately $3.21 trillion in main foreign exchange market turnover was broken down as follows:
$1.005 trillion in spot transactions
$362 billion in outright forwards
$1.714 trillion in foreign exchange swaps
$129 billion estimated gaps in reporting
Sunday, August 9, 2009
Barometer of the economy
At the stock exchange, share prices rise and fall depending, largely, on market forces. Share prices tend to rise or remain stable when companies and the economy in general show signs of stability and growth. An economic recession, depression, or financial crisis could eventually lead to a stock market crash. Therefore the movement of share prices and in general of the stock indexes can be an indicator of the general trend in the economy.
Corporate governance
By having a wide and varied scope of owners, companies generally tend to improve on their management standards and efficiency in order to satisfy the demands of these shareholders and the more stringent rules for public corporations imposed by public stock exchanges and the government. Consequently, it is alleged that public companies (companies that are owned by shareholders who are members of the general public and trade shares on public exchanges) tend to have better management records than privately-held companies (those companies where shares are not publicly traded, often owned by the company founders and/or their families and heirs, or otherwise by a small group of investors). However, some well-documented cases are known where it is alleged that there has been considerable slippage in corporate governance on the part of some public companies. The dot-com bubble in the early 2000s, and the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007-08, are classical examples of corporate mismanagement. Companies like Pets.com (2000), Enron Corporation (2001), One.Tel (2001), Sunbeam (2001), Webvan (2001), Adelphia (2002), MCI WorldCom (2002), Parmalat (2003), American International Group (2008), Lehman Brothers (2008), and Satyam Computer Services (2009) were among the most widely scrutinized by the media.
Facilitating company growth
Companies view acquisitions as an opportunity to expand product lines, increase distribution channels, hedge against volatility, increase its market share, or acquire other necessary business assets. A takeover bid or a merger agreement through the stock market is one of the simplest and most common ways for a company to grow by acquisition or fusion.
The First Stock Exchanges
In 11th century France the courtiers de change were concerned with managing and regulating the debts of agricultural communities on behalf of the banks. As these men also traded in debts, they could be called the first brokers.
Some stories suggest that the origins of the term "bourse" come from the Latin bursa meaning a bag because, in 13th century Bruges, the sign of a purse (or perhaps three purses), hung on the front of the house where merchants met.
House Ter Beurze in Bruges, Belgium.
However, it is more likely that in the late 13th century commodity traders in Bruges gathered inside the house of a man called Van der Burse, and in 1309 they institutionalized this until now informal meeting and became the "Bruges Bourse". The idea spread quickly around Flanders and neighbouring counties and "Bourses" soon opened in Ghent and Amsterdam.
In the middle of the 13th century, Venetian bankers began to trade in government securities. In 1351, the Venetian Government outlawed spreading rumors intended to lower the price of government funds. There were people in Pisa, Verona, Genoa and Florence who also began trading in government securities during the 14th century. This was only possible because these were independent city states ruled by a council of influential citizens, not by a duke.
The Dutch later started joint stock companies, which let shareholders invest in business ventures and get a share of their profits—or losses. In 1602, the Dutch East India Company issued the first shares on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange. It was the first company to issue stocks and bonds. In 1688, the trading of stocks began on a stock exchange in London.
On May 17, 1792, twenty-four supply brokers signed the Buttonwood Agreement outside 68 Wall Street in New York underneath a buttonwood tree. On March 8, 1817, properties got renamed to New York Stock & Exchange Board. In the 19th century, exchanges (generally famous as futures exchanges) got substantiated to trade futures contracts and then choices contracts.
There are now a large number of stock exchanges in the world.
Some stories suggest that the origins of the term "bourse" come from the Latin bursa meaning a bag because, in 13th century Bruges, the sign of a purse (or perhaps three purses), hung on the front of the house where merchants met.
House Ter Beurze in Bruges, Belgium.
However, it is more likely that in the late 13th century commodity traders in Bruges gathered inside the house of a man called Van der Burse, and in 1309 they institutionalized this until now informal meeting and became the "Bruges Bourse". The idea spread quickly around Flanders and neighbouring counties and "Bourses" soon opened in Ghent and Amsterdam.
In the middle of the 13th century, Venetian bankers began to trade in government securities. In 1351, the Venetian Government outlawed spreading rumors intended to lower the price of government funds. There were people in Pisa, Verona, Genoa and Florence who also began trading in government securities during the 14th century. This was only possible because these were independent city states ruled by a council of influential citizens, not by a duke.
The Dutch later started joint stock companies, which let shareholders invest in business ventures and get a share of their profits—or losses. In 1602, the Dutch East India Company issued the first shares on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange. It was the first company to issue stocks and bonds. In 1688, the trading of stocks began on a stock exchange in London.
On May 17, 1792, twenty-four supply brokers signed the Buttonwood Agreement outside 68 Wall Street in New York underneath a buttonwood tree. On March 8, 1817, properties got renamed to New York Stock & Exchange Board. In the 19th century, exchanges (generally famous as futures exchanges) got substantiated to trade futures contracts and then choices contracts.
There are now a large number of stock exchanges in the world.
Stock exchange
A stock exchange, (formerly a securities exchange) is a corporation or mutual organization which provides "trading" facilities for stock brokers and traders, to trade stocks and other securities. Stock exchanges also provide facilities for the issue and redemption of securities as well as other financial instruments and capital events including the payment of income and dividends. The securities traded on a stock exchange include: shares issued by companies, unit trusts, derivatives, pooled investment products and bonds. To be able to trade a security on a certain stock exchange, it has to be listed there. Usually there is a central location at least for recordkeeping, but trade is less and less linked to such a physical place, as modern markets are electronic networks, which gives them advantages of speed and cost of transactions. Trade on an exchange is by members only. The initial offering of stocks and bonds to investors is by definition done in the primary market and subsequent trading is done in the secondary market. A stock exchange is often the most important component of a stock market. Supply and demand in stock markets is driven by various factors which, as in all free markets, affect the price of stocks (see stock valuation).
There is usually no compulsion to issue stock via the stock exchange itself, nor must stock be subsequently traded on the exchange. Such trading is said to be off exchange or over-the-counter. This is the usual way that derivatives and bonds are traded. Increasingly, stock exchanges are part of a global market for securities.
There is usually no compulsion to issue stock via the stock exchange itself, nor must stock be subsequently traded on the exchange. Such trading is said to be off exchange or over-the-counter. This is the usual way that derivatives and bonds are traded. Increasingly, stock exchanges are part of a global market for securities.
List of stock exchanges
This is an active list of stock exchanges. Those futures exchanges that also offer trading in securities besides trading in futures contracts are listed both here and the list of futures exchanges.
Region
Stock Exchange
Market Value(millions USD)
Total Share Turnover(millions USD)
Africa
Johannesburg Securities Exchange
605,040.2
117,424.7
Americas
NASDAQ
2,773,684.3
12,256,704.3
Americas
São Paulo Stock Exchange
920,263.9
191,926.1
Americas
Toronto Stock Exchange
1,347,674.0
490,912.4
Americas
New York Stock Exchange
9,574,066.6
7,986,835.8
Asia-Pacific
Australian Securities Exchange
839,062.7
273,205.9
Asia-Pacific
Bombay Stock Exchange
1,032,589.6
83,906.6
Asia-Pacific
Hong Kong Stock Exchange
1,773,002.2
519,465.7
Asia-Pacific
Korea Exchange
640,357.6
618,607.8
Asia-Pacific
National Stock Exchange of India
968,815.1
242,641.7
Asia-Pacific
Shanghai Stock Exchange
2,069,937.1
1,685,862.2
Asia-Pacific
Shenzhen Stock Exchange
563,103.3
880,744.6
Asia-Pacific
Tokyo Stock Exchange
3,102,492.9
1,561,888.8
Europe
Euronext
2,262,751.6
742,885.6
Europe
Frankfurt Stock Exchange (Deutsche Börse)
1,132,126.2
1,101,064.6
Europe
London Stock Exchange
2,204,320.0
1,483,263.3
Europe
Madrid Stock Exchange (Bolsas y Mercados Españoles)
1,084,606.4
591,217.3
Europe
Milan Stock Exchange (Borsa Italiana)
554,613.9
341,421.1
Europe
Nordic Stock Exchange Group OMX1
664,465.8
319,398.1
Europe
Swiss Exchange
854,369.0
272,201.5
Region
Stock Exchange
Market Value(millions USD)
Total Share Turnover(millions USD)
Africa
Johannesburg Securities Exchange
605,040.2
117,424.7
Americas
NASDAQ
2,773,684.3
12,256,704.3
Americas
São Paulo Stock Exchange
920,263.9
191,926.1
Americas
Toronto Stock Exchange
1,347,674.0
490,912.4
Americas
New York Stock Exchange
9,574,066.6
7,986,835.8
Asia-Pacific
Australian Securities Exchange
839,062.7
273,205.9
Asia-Pacific
Bombay Stock Exchange
1,032,589.6
83,906.6
Asia-Pacific
Hong Kong Stock Exchange
1,773,002.2
519,465.7
Asia-Pacific
Korea Exchange
640,357.6
618,607.8
Asia-Pacific
National Stock Exchange of India
968,815.1
242,641.7
Asia-Pacific
Shanghai Stock Exchange
2,069,937.1
1,685,862.2
Asia-Pacific
Shenzhen Stock Exchange
563,103.3
880,744.6
Asia-Pacific
Tokyo Stock Exchange
3,102,492.9
1,561,888.8
Europe
Euronext
2,262,751.6
742,885.6
Europe
Frankfurt Stock Exchange (Deutsche Börse)
1,132,126.2
1,101,064.6
Europe
London Stock Exchange
2,204,320.0
1,483,263.3
Europe
Madrid Stock Exchange (Bolsas y Mercados Españoles)
1,084,606.4
591,217.3
Europe
Milan Stock Exchange (Borsa Italiana)
554,613.9
341,421.1
Europe
Nordic Stock Exchange Group OMX1
664,465.8
319,398.1
Europe
Swiss Exchange
854,369.0
272,201.5
Types of Preferred Stock
In addition to the straight preferred, as just described, there is great diversity in the preferred stock market. Additional types of preferred stock include:
Prior Preferred Stock: Many companies have different issues of preferred stock outstanding at the same time and one of them is usually designated to be the one with the highest priority. If the company has only enough money to meet the dividend schedule on one of the preferred issues, it makes the dividend payments on the prior preferred. Therefore, prior preferred have less credit risk than the other preferred stocks but it usually offers a lower yield than the others.
Preference Preferred Stock: Ranked behind the company's prior preferred stock (on a seniority basis), are the company's preference preferred issues. These issues receive preference over all other classes of the company's preferred except for the prior preferred. If the company issues more than one issue of preference preferred, then the various issues are ranked by their relative seniority. One issue is designated first preference, the next senior issue is the second and so on.
Convertible Preferred Stock: These are preferred issues that the holders can exchange for a predetermined number of the company's common stock. This exchange can occur at any time the investor chooses regardless of the current market price of the common stock. It is a one way deal so you cannot convert the common stock back to preferred stock.
Participating Preferred Stock: These preferred issues offer the holders the opportunity to receive extra dividends if the company achieves some predetermined financial goals. The investors who purchased these stocks receive their regular dividend regardless of how well or how poorly the company performs, assuming of course, the company does well enough to make the annual dividend payments. If the company achieves predetermined sales, earnings or profitability goals, the investors receive an additional dividend.
Prior Preferred Stock: Many companies have different issues of preferred stock outstanding at the same time and one of them is usually designated to be the one with the highest priority. If the company has only enough money to meet the dividend schedule on one of the preferred issues, it makes the dividend payments on the prior preferred. Therefore, prior preferred have less credit risk than the other preferred stocks but it usually offers a lower yield than the others.
Preference Preferred Stock: Ranked behind the company's prior preferred stock (on a seniority basis), are the company's preference preferred issues. These issues receive preference over all other classes of the company's preferred except for the prior preferred. If the company issues more than one issue of preference preferred, then the various issues are ranked by their relative seniority. One issue is designated first preference, the next senior issue is the second and so on.
Convertible Preferred Stock: These are preferred issues that the holders can exchange for a predetermined number of the company's common stock. This exchange can occur at any time the investor chooses regardless of the current market price of the common stock. It is a one way deal so you cannot convert the common stock back to preferred stock.
Participating Preferred Stock: These preferred issues offer the holders the opportunity to receive extra dividends if the company achieves some predetermined financial goals. The investors who purchased these stocks receive their regular dividend regardless of how well or how poorly the company performs, assuming of course, the company does well enough to make the annual dividend payments. If the company achieves predetermined sales, earnings or profitability goals, the investors receive an additional dividend.
Preferred stock
Preferred stock, also called preferred shares or preference shares, is typically a 'higher ranking' stock than common stock, and its terms are negotiated between the corporation and the investor.
Preferred stock usually carries no voting rights, but may carry priority over common stock in the payment of dividends and upon liquidation. Preferred stock may carry a dividend that is paid out prior to any dividends being paid to common stock holders. Preferred stock may have a convertibility feature into common stock. Preferred stockholders will be paid out in assets before common stockholders and after debt holders in bankruptcy. Terms of the preferred stock are stated in a "Certificate of Designation".
Preferred stock usually carries no voting rights, but may carry priority over common stock in the payment of dividends and upon liquidation. Preferred stock may carry a dividend that is paid out prior to any dividends being paid to common stock holders. Preferred stock may have a convertibility feature into common stock. Preferred stockholders will be paid out in assets before common stockholders and after debt holders in bankruptcy. Terms of the preferred stock are stated in a "Certificate of Designation".
Market participants
Unlike a stock market, where all participants have access to the same prices, the foreign exchange market is divided into levels of access. At the top is the inter-bank market, which is made up of the largest investment banking firms. Within the inter-bank market, spreads, which are the difference between the bid and ask prices, are razor sharp and usually unavailable, and not known to players outside the inner circle. The difference between the bid and ask prices widens (from 0-1 pip to 1-2 pips for some currencies such as the EUR). This is due to volume. If a trader can guarantee large numbers of transactions for large amounts, they can demand a smaller difference between the bid and ask price, which is referred to as a better spread. The levels of access that make up the foreign exchange market are determined by the size of the "line" (the amount of money with which they are trading). The top-tier inter-bank market accounts for 53% of all transactions. After that there are usually smaller investment banks, followed by large multi-national corporations (which need to hedge risk and pay employees in different countries), large hedge funds, and even some of the retail FX-metal market makers. According to Galati and Melvin, “Pension funds, insurance companies, mutual funds, and other institutional investors have played an increasingly important role in financial markets in general, and in FX markets in particular, since the early 2000s.” (2004) In addition, he notes, “Hedge funds have grown markedly over the 2001–2004 period in terms of both number and overall size” Central banks also participate in the foreign exchange market to align currencies to their economic needs.
Market size and liquidity
Presently, the foreign exchange market is one of the largest and most liquid financial markets in the world. Traders include large banks, central banks, currency speculators, corporations, governments, and other financial institutions. The average daily volume in the global foreign exchange and related markets is continuously growing. Daily turnover was reported to be over US$3.2 trillion in April 2007 by the Bank for International Settlements. Since then, the market has continued to grow. According to Euromoney's annual FX Poll, volumes grew a further 41% between 2007 and 2008.
Of the $3.98 trillion daily global turnover, trading in London accounted for around $1.36 trillion, or 34.1% of the total, making London by far the global center for foreign exchange. In second and third places respectively, trading in New York accounted for 16.6%, and Tokyo accounted for 6.0%. In addition to "traditional" turnover, $2.1 trillion was traded in derivatives.
Exchange-traded FX futures contracts were introduced in 1972 at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and are actively traded relative to most other futures contracts.
Several other developed countries also permit the trading of FX derivative products (like currency futures and options on currency futures) on their exchanges. All these developed countries already have fully convertible capital accounts. Most emerging countries do not permit FX derivative products on their exchanges in view of prevalent controls on the capital accounts. However, a few select emerging countries (e.g., Korea, South Africa, India—; ) have already successfully experimented with the currency futures exchanges, despite having some controls on the capital account.
FX futures volume has grown rapidly in recent years, and accounts for about 7% of the total foreign exchange market volume, according to The Wall Street Journal Europe (5/5/06, p. 20).
Of the $3.98 trillion daily global turnover, trading in London accounted for around $1.36 trillion, or 34.1% of the total, making London by far the global center for foreign exchange. In second and third places respectively, trading in New York accounted for 16.6%, and Tokyo accounted for 6.0%. In addition to "traditional" turnover, $2.1 trillion was traded in derivatives.
Exchange-traded FX futures contracts were introduced in 1972 at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and are actively traded relative to most other futures contracts.
Several other developed countries also permit the trading of FX derivative products (like currency futures and options on currency futures) on their exchanges. All these developed countries already have fully convertible capital accounts. Most emerging countries do not permit FX derivative products on their exchanges in view of prevalent controls on the capital accounts. However, a few select emerging countries (e.g., Korea, South Africa, India—; ) have already successfully experimented with the currency futures exchanges, despite having some controls on the capital account.
FX futures volume has grown rapidly in recent years, and accounts for about 7% of the total foreign exchange market volume, according to The Wall Street Journal Europe (5/5/06, p. 20).
Foreign exchange market
The foreign exchange market (currency, forex, or FX) trades currencies. It lets banks and other institutions easily buy and sell currencies.
The purpose of the foreign exchange market is to help international trade and investment. A foreign exchange market helps businesses convert one currency to another. For example, it permits a U.S. business to import European goods and pay Euros, even though the business's income is in U.S. dollars.
In a typical foreign exchange transaction a party purchases a quantity of one currency by paying a quantity of another currency. The modern foreign exchange market started forming during the 1970s when countries gradually switched to floating exchange rates from the previous exchange rate regime, which remained fixed as per the Bretton Woods system.
The foreign exchange market is unique because of
its trading volumes,
the extreme liquidity of the market,
its geographical dispersion,
its long trading hours: 24 hours a day except on weekends (from 22:00 UTC on Sunday until 22:00 UTC Friday),
the variety of factors that affect exchange rates.
the low margins of profit compared with other markets of fixed income (but profits can be high due to very large trading volumes)
the use of leverage
The purpose of the foreign exchange market is to help international trade and investment. A foreign exchange market helps businesses convert one currency to another. For example, it permits a U.S. business to import European goods and pay Euros, even though the business's income is in U.S. dollars.
In a typical foreign exchange transaction a party purchases a quantity of one currency by paying a quantity of another currency. The modern foreign exchange market started forming during the 1970s when countries gradually switched to floating exchange rates from the previous exchange rate regime, which remained fixed as per the Bretton Woods system.
The foreign exchange market is unique because of
its trading volumes,
the extreme liquidity of the market,
its geographical dispersion,
its long trading hours: 24 hours a day except on weekends (from 22:00 UTC on Sunday until 22:00 UTC Friday),
the variety of factors that affect exchange rates.
the low margins of profit compared with other markets of fixed income (but profits can be high due to very large trading volumes)
the use of leverage
Saturday, August 8, 2009
Stock market subjects to learn
Whether an individual chooses a traditional or non-traditional education to learn how the stock market works, the following basic subjects are covered:
How the stock market works
Risks associated with trading derivatives
Types of derivatives
How to make trades
How to interpret financial news
What to look for in a broker or brokerage firm
More advanced topics would include:
Trading strategies
Fundamental analysis
Technical analysis
How the stock market works
Risks associated with trading derivatives
Types of derivatives
How to make trades
How to interpret financial news
What to look for in a broker or brokerage firm
More advanced topics would include:
Trading strategies
Fundamental analysis
Technical analysis
Self-taught
The following resources exist in libraries and on the Internet for an individual to learn about investing in the stock market:
A stock market simulator allows one to trade without using real funds (also referred to as "paper trading"). These simulators are offered by organizations associated with the stock market (such as the Chicago Board Options Exchange) and the types of for-profit education companies mentioned in Non-traditional classroom settings.
Articles
Financial magazines like Kiplinger and Forbes provide investing articles, though their target market is aimed at more general investors. Magazines that focus on trading derivatives are Active Trader and Tradersworld. Magazines with an online presence also offer access to some, if not all, of their articles online.
Web sites devoted to the stock market or trading arena post articles online or send them via email to subscribers. These web sites can be free, non-profit, or for-profit.
Books written by investors and traders.
Online forums that discuss subjects related to the stock market and trading derivatives.
Non-profit organizations that offer stock market educational material:
American Association of Individual Investors
Alliance for Investor Education
BetterInvesting Community
Investor Protection Trust
National Endowment for Financial Education
North American Securities Administrators Association
Securities and Exchange Commission, Office of Investor Education and Assistance
Stock market organizations that offer stock market educational material:
American Stock Exchange
Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE)
Council for Economic Education
Financial Industry Regulatory Authority
NASDAQ Educational Foundation
New York Stock Exchange
A stock market simulator allows one to trade without using real funds (also referred to as "paper trading"). These simulators are offered by organizations associated with the stock market (such as the Chicago Board Options Exchange) and the types of for-profit education companies mentioned in Non-traditional classroom settings.
Articles
Financial magazines like Kiplinger and Forbes provide investing articles, though their target market is aimed at more general investors. Magazines that focus on trading derivatives are Active Trader and Tradersworld. Magazines with an online presence also offer access to some, if not all, of their articles online.
Web sites devoted to the stock market or trading arena post articles online or send them via email to subscribers. These web sites can be free, non-profit, or for-profit.
Books written by investors and traders.
Online forums that discuss subjects related to the stock market and trading derivatives.
Non-profit organizations that offer stock market educational material:
American Association of Individual Investors
Alliance for Investor Education
BetterInvesting Community
Investor Protection Trust
National Endowment for Financial Education
North American Securities Administrators Association
Securities and Exchange Commission, Office of Investor Education and Assistance
Stock market organizations that offer stock market educational material:
American Stock Exchange
Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE)
Council for Economic Education
Financial Industry Regulatory Authority
NASDAQ Educational Foundation
New York Stock Exchange
Mentor/apprentice relationship
Also referred to as "personal coaches," mentors work one-on-one with a student, In this situation, the student receives more personal attention from the instructor than from a classroom or distance learning education. Some mentors offer their services for a fee.
Non-traditional classroom settings
Non-traditional classroom settings are offered by:
Non-profit organizations
Stock market organizations
For-profit businesses
For-profit financial education companies exist that offer programs of study (also referred to as "systems" or "courses" – the terminology varies) on stock market education. Unlike colleges that prepare students for working in the financial arena, these companies educate students with a more narrow focus – how to trade derivatives for the purpose of personal investing. Examples of such companies are thinkorswim (formerly Investools) and Rich Dad's Education (based on the "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" book by Robert Kiyosaki. These types of companies offer both classroom settings for learning and distance education programs.
Another aspect that differentiates for-profit stock market education companies from traditional colleges is the commercialization factor. For-profit stock market education companies frequently develop other products – such as software and newsletters – that they market to their students. Colleges and universities, frequently founded for the purpose of providing education and established as non-profit organizations, do not follow this business model.
Non-profit organizations
Stock market organizations
For-profit businesses
For-profit financial education companies exist that offer programs of study (also referred to as "systems" or "courses" – the terminology varies) on stock market education. Unlike colleges that prepare students for working in the financial arena, these companies educate students with a more narrow focus – how to trade derivatives for the purpose of personal investing. Examples of such companies are thinkorswim (formerly Investools) and Rich Dad's Education (based on the "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" book by Robert Kiyosaki. These types of companies offer both classroom settings for learning and distance education programs.
Another aspect that differentiates for-profit stock market education companies from traditional colleges is the commercialization factor. For-profit stock market education companies frequently develop other products – such as software and newsletters – that they market to their students. Colleges and universities, frequently founded for the purpose of providing education and established as non-profit organizations, do not follow this business model.
Traditional classroom settings
Many colleges and universities offer courses of study in business, economics, and finance. However, the coursework is aimed at preparing the student for the professional world. They are not designed or intended to teach a student how to trade in the stock market, although the introductory/basic courses would provide a good basic foundation of knowledge. Those intending to follow the professional stockbroker career path usually begin their education by obtaining a degree in business, economics, or finance.
Some of the core subjects covered by an undergraduate education during the course of a financial/business college education are:
Basic marketing
Business communication
Business ethics
Financial accounting
Macroeconomics
Mathematics
Microeconomics
Real estate
Risk management
Statistics
Some of the core subjects covered by an undergraduate education during the course of a financial/business college education are:
Basic marketing
Business communication
Business ethics
Financial accounting
Macroeconomics
Mathematics
Microeconomics
Real estate
Risk management
Statistics
Stock market education
To become a professional commodity broker in the United States, an individual must take and pass the General Securities Representative Exam (Series 7) and in most states, the Uniform Securities Agent State Law Examination (Series 63). To take the test, you must be sponsored by "a member firm, a self-regulatory organization (SRO), or an exchange." This requirement, as well as the administration of the test, is under the jurisdiction of FINRA, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.
For individuals who are interested only in managing their own investments, several options exist to obtain a stock market education:
Traditional classroom setting
Non-traditional classroom settings
Self-education
Mentor/apprenticeship relationship
For individuals who are interested only in managing their own investments, several options exist to obtain a stock market education:
Traditional classroom setting
Non-traditional classroom settings
Self-education
Mentor/apprenticeship relationship
Sensex tanks 354 pts on monsoon woes
Stock market indices fell today on concerns over scanty rainfall affecting India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth.
The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) FMCG index was the worst performer of the week. It lost 6.71 per cent. It was followed by realty (5.93 per cent), auto (4.49 per cent), Bankex (4.42 per cent) and power (4.12 per cent).
“Markets today witnessed a sharp selloff due to monsoon worries, which affected auto stocks,” said Manish Sonthalia, fund manager, Motilal Oswal Securities.
The Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index, or Sensex, closed at 15,160.24, down 353.79 points, or 2.28 per cent. The index has lost around 743 points in the last two trading days. The CNX Nifty slumped to 4,481.40, down 104.10 points, or 2.27 per cent.
US markets dropped on Thursday ahead of the July job data. The Dow was down 0.27 per cent and the Nasdaq slipped 1 per cent.
Asian markets ended on a low note. The Hang Seng fell 2.51 per cent, taking cues from a sharp slide in Chinese markets due to liquidity worries, while the Shanghai Composite slumped 2.85 per cent. The Straits Times declined 2 per cent. The Nikkei, however, ended at a fresh 10-month high by rising 0.23 per cent.
Today, all sectoral indices ended in the negative zone, with the consumer durables index leading the fall. The index slumped 3.92 per cent.
The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) FMCG index was the worst performer of the week. It lost 6.71 per cent. It was followed by realty (5.93 per cent), auto (4.49 per cent), Bankex (4.42 per cent) and power (4.12 per cent).
“Markets today witnessed a sharp selloff due to monsoon worries, which affected auto stocks,” said Manish Sonthalia, fund manager, Motilal Oswal Securities.
The Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index, or Sensex, closed at 15,160.24, down 353.79 points, or 2.28 per cent. The index has lost around 743 points in the last two trading days. The CNX Nifty slumped to 4,481.40, down 104.10 points, or 2.27 per cent.
US markets dropped on Thursday ahead of the July job data. The Dow was down 0.27 per cent and the Nasdaq slipped 1 per cent.
Asian markets ended on a low note. The Hang Seng fell 2.51 per cent, taking cues from a sharp slide in Chinese markets due to liquidity worries, while the Shanghai Composite slumped 2.85 per cent. The Straits Times declined 2 per cent. The Nikkei, however, ended at a fresh 10-month high by rising 0.23 per cent.
Today, all sectoral indices ended in the negative zone, with the consumer durables index leading the fall. The index slumped 3.92 per cent.
Friday, August 7, 2009
Implications
Several of the stock market 'technical analysis' approaches are based on the underlying assumptions of cyclicity. These include the use of oscillators, moving averages and the Japanese Candlestick style charts. All of these indicators are different methods of analyzing and synthesizing market price and/or volume over time.
Moving Averages: There are many types of moving average indicators. Some moving average indicators such as the exponential moving average show a slightly different version of the moving average trend by smoothing out the short term fluctuations.
Oscillators: These illustrate the price and volume cycles thereby allowing the investor/trader to identify relevant peaks and valleys within the trend itself.
Japanese Candlestick Charts: This is a specialized type of price chart that provides more information about price activity than the standard "mountain" style chart used by many amateur investors.
Moving Averages: There are many types of moving average indicators. Some moving average indicators such as the exponential moving average show a slightly different version of the moving average trend by smoothing out the short term fluctuations.
Oscillators: These illustrate the price and volume cycles thereby allowing the investor/trader to identify relevant peaks and valleys within the trend itself.
Japanese Candlestick Charts: This is a specialized type of price chart that provides more information about price activity than the standard "mountain" style chart used by many amateur investors.
Use of multiple screens
A stock market trader will often use several "screens" or charts on their computer with different time-frames and price intervals in order to gain valuable information for making profitable buying and selling (trading) decisions.
Often expert traders will emphasize the use of multiple time-frames for successful trading. For example, Alexander Elder suggests a Triple Screen approach.
Longer-term screen: To identify the long term trend and opportunities
Middle screen: To identify the best day(s) on which to locate a buy or sell opportunity
Finer screen: To identify the optimum intra-day price at which to buy or sell a given security
Often expert traders will emphasize the use of multiple time-frames for successful trading. For example, Alexander Elder suggests a Triple Screen approach.
Longer-term screen: To identify the long term trend and opportunities
Middle screen: To identify the best day(s) on which to locate a buy or sell opportunity
Finer screen: To identify the optimum intra-day price at which to buy or sell a given security
Compound cycles
The presence of multiple cycles of different periods and magnitudes in conjunction with linear trends, can give rise to complex patterns, that are mathematically generated through Fourier analysis.
In order for an investor to more easily visualise a longer term cycle (or a trend), he sometimes will superimpose a shorter term cycle such as a moving average on top of it.
A common view of a stock market pattern is one that involves a specific time-frame (for example a 6-month chart with daily price intervals). In this kind of a chart one may create and observe any of the following trends or trend relationships:
A long term trend, which may appear as linear
Intermediate term trends and their relationship to the long term trend
Random price movements or consolidation (sometimes referred to as 'noise') and its relationship to one of the above
For example, if one looks at a longer time-frame (perhaps a 2-year chart with weekly price intervals), the current trend may appear as a part of a larger cycle (primary trend). Switching to a shorter time-frame (such as a 10-day chart using 60-minute price intervals), may reveal price movements that appear as shorter term trends in contrast to the primary trend on the six month, daily time period, chart.
In order for an investor to more easily visualise a longer term cycle (or a trend), he sometimes will superimpose a shorter term cycle such as a moving average on top of it.
A common view of a stock market pattern is one that involves a specific time-frame (for example a 6-month chart with daily price intervals). In this kind of a chart one may create and observe any of the following trends or trend relationships:
A long term trend, which may appear as linear
Intermediate term trends and their relationship to the long term trend
Random price movements or consolidation (sometimes referred to as 'noise') and its relationship to one of the above
For example, if one looks at a longer time-frame (perhaps a 2-year chart with weekly price intervals), the current trend may appear as a part of a larger cycle (primary trend). Switching to a shorter time-frame (such as a 10-day chart using 60-minute price intervals), may reveal price movements that appear as shorter term trends in contrast to the primary trend on the six month, daily time period, chart.
Stock market cycles Causes
Many have theorized as to the possible underlying causes of these statistical cycles. The four-year U.S. presidential cycle for example is attributed to politics and its impact on America's economic policies and market sentiment. Either or both of these factors could be the cause for the stock market's statistically improved performance during most of the third and fourth years of a president's four year term. . The month-end seasonality on the other hand is generally attributed to the automatic purchases associated with retirement accounts. There are other cycles however, for which the explanations are less clear.
Stock market cycles
A cycle or a wave represents a process that tends to repeat itself in time in a more or less regular fashion.
There are many types of business cycles. Some of the most common ones are those that impact the stock market. In his book The Next Great Bubble Boom, Harry S. Dent Jr., a Harvard graduate and Fortune 100 consultant, outlines several cycles that have specific relevance to the stock market. . Some of these cycles have been quantitatively examined for statistical significance.
Some of the major cycles that have been examined by Mr. Dent and others are:
The four-year presidential cycle in the USA.
Annual seasonality, in the USA and other countries.
"The Halloween indicator" (or "Sell in May and Go Away")
The "January effect"
The lunar cycle
Many investors and market traders take recourse to these cycles and the insights they provide when making investment decisions. For example investment advisor Mark Hulbert has tracked the long term performance of Norman Fosback’s a Seasonality Timing System that combines month-end and holiday-based buy/sell rules. According to Hulbert, this system has been able to outperform the market with significantly less risk. According to him it has the best risk-adjusted performance of any system his newsletter tracks. Other authors and investment advisors contend that there are four stages in any major cycle whether it is an individual stock or a market sector. These four stages are (1) period of consolidation or base building (2) upward advancing stage (3) top area and (4) declining phase.
There are many types of business cycles. Some of the most common ones are those that impact the stock market. In his book The Next Great Bubble Boom, Harry S. Dent Jr., a Harvard graduate and Fortune 100 consultant, outlines several cycles that have specific relevance to the stock market. . Some of these cycles have been quantitatively examined for statistical significance.
Some of the major cycles that have been examined by Mr. Dent and others are:
The four-year presidential cycle in the USA.
Annual seasonality, in the USA and other countries.
"The Halloween indicator" (or "Sell in May and Go Away")
The "January effect"
The lunar cycle
Many investors and market traders take recourse to these cycles and the insights they provide when making investment decisions. For example investment advisor Mark Hulbert has tracked the long term performance of Norman Fosback’s a Seasonality Timing System that combines month-end and holiday-based buy/sell rules. According to Hulbert, this system has been able to outperform the market with significantly less risk. According to him it has the best risk-adjusted performance of any system his newsletter tracks. Other authors and investment advisors contend that there are four stages in any major cycle whether it is an individual stock or a market sector. These four stages are (1) period of consolidation or base building (2) upward advancing stage (3) top area and (4) declining phase.
Taxation
Capital gains tax
According to much national or state legislation, a large array of fiscal obligations are taxed for capital gains. Taxes are charged by the state over the transactions, dividends and capital gains on the stock market, in particular in the stock exchanges. However, these fiscal obligations may vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction because, among other reasons, it could be assumed that taxation is already incorporated into the stock price through the different taxes companies pay to the state, or that tax free stock market operations are useful to boost economic growth.
According to much national or state legislation, a large array of fiscal obligations are taxed for capital gains. Taxes are charged by the state over the transactions, dividends and capital gains on the stock market, in particular in the stock exchanges. However, these fiscal obligations may vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction because, among other reasons, it could be assumed that taxation is already incorporated into the stock price through the different taxes companies pay to the state, or that tax free stock market operations are useful to boost economic growth.
Investment strategies
One of the many things people always want to know about the stock market is, "How do I make money investing?" There are many different approaches; two basic methods are classified as either fundamental analysis or technical analysis. Fundamental analysis refers to analyzing companies by their financial statements found in SEC Filings, business trends, general economic conditions, etc. Technical analysis studies price actions in markets through the use of charts and quantitative techniques to attempt to forecast price trends regardless of the company's financial prospects. One example of a technical strategy is the Trend following method, used by John W. Henry and Ed Seykota, which uses price patterns, utilizes strict money management and is also rooted in risk control and diversification.
Additionally, many choose to invest via the index method. In this method, one holds a weighted or unweighted portfolio consisting of the entire stock market or some segment of the stock market (such as the S&P 500 or Wilshire 5000). The principal aim of this strategy is to maximize diversification, minimize taxes from too frequent trading, and ride the general trend of the stock market (which, in the U.S., has averaged nearly 10%/year, compounded annually, since World War II).
Additionally, many choose to invest via the index method. In this method, one holds a weighted or unweighted portfolio consisting of the entire stock market or some segment of the stock market (such as the S&P 500 or Wilshire 5000). The principal aim of this strategy is to maximize diversification, minimize taxes from too frequent trading, and ride the general trend of the stock market (which, in the U.S., has averaged nearly 10%/year, compounded annually, since World War II).
Margin buying
In margin buying, the trader borrows money (at interest) to buy a stock and hopes for it to rise. Most industrialized countries have regulations that require that if the borrowing is based on collateral from other stocks the trader owns outright, it can be a maximum of a certain percentage of those other stocks' value. In the United States, the margin requirements have been 50% for many years (that is, if you want to make a $1000 investment, you need to put up $500, and there is often a maintenance margin below the $500). A margin call is made if the total value of the investor's account cannot support the loss of the trade. (Upon a decline in the value of the margined securities additional funds may be required to maintain the account's equity, and with or without notice the margined security or any others within the account may be sold by the brokerage to protect its loan position. The investor is responsible for any shortfall following such forced sales.) Regulation of margin requirements (by the Federal Reserve) was implemented after the Crash of 1929. Before that, speculators typically only needed to put up as little as 10 percent (or even less) of the total investment represented by the stocks purchased. Other rules may include the prohibition of free-riding: putting in an order to buy stocks without paying initially (there is normally a three-day grace period for delivery of the stock), but then selling them (before the three-days are up) and using part of the proceeds to make the original payment (assuming that the value of the stocks has not declined in the interim).
Short selling
In short selling, the trader borrows stock (usually from his brokerage which holds its clients' shares or its own shares on account to lend to short sellers) then sells it on the market, hoping for the price to fall. The trader eventually buys back the stock, making money if the price fell in the meantime or losing money if it rose. Exiting a short position by buying back the stock is called "covering a short position." This strategy may also be used by unscrupulous traders to artificially lower the price of a stock. Hence most markets either prevent short selling or place restrictions on when and how a short sale can occur. The practice of naked shorting is illegal in most (but not all) stock markets.
Leveraged strategies
Stock that a trader does not actually own may be traded using short selling; margin buying may be used to purchase stock with borrowed funds; or, derivatives may be used to control large blocks of stocks for a much smaller amount of money than would be required by outright purchase or sale.
Derivative instruments
Financial innovation has brought many new financial instruments whose pay-offs or values depend on the prices of stocks. Some examples are exchange-traded funds (ETFs), stock index and stock options, equity swaps, single-stock futures, and stock index futures. These last two may be traded on futures exchanges (which are distinct from stock exchanges—their history traces back to commodities futures exchanges), or traded over-the-counter. As all of these products are only derived from stocks, they are sometimes considered to be traded in a (hypothetical) derivatives market, rather than the (hypothetical) stock market.
Stock market index
The movements of the prices in a market or section of a market are captured in price indices called stock market indices, of which there are many, e.g., the S&P, the FTSE and the Euronext indices. Such indices are usually market capitalization weighted, with the weights reflecting the contribution of the stock to the index. The constituents of the index are reviewed frequently to include/exclude stocks in order to reflect the changing business environment.
Crashes
A stock market crash is often defined as a sharp dip in share prices of equities listed on the stock exchanges. In parallel with various economic factors, a reason for stock market crashes is also due to panic and investing public's loss of comfidence. Often, stock market crashes end speculative economic bubbles.
There have been famous stock market crashes that have ended in the loss of billions of dollars and wealth destruction on a massive scale. An increasing number of people are involved in the stock market, especially since the social security and retirement plans are being increasingly privatized and linked to stocks and bonds and other elements of the market. There have been a number of famous stock market crashes like the Wall Street Crash of 1929, the stock market crash of 1973–4, the Black Monday of 1987, the Dot-com bubble of 2000, and the Stock Market Crash of 2008.
One of the most famous stock market crashes started October 24, 1929 on Black Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial lost 50% during this stock market crash. It was the beginning of the Great Depression. Another famous crash took place on October 19, 1987 – Black Monday. On Black Monday itself, the Dow Jones fell by 22.6% after completing a 5 year continuous rise in share prices. This event not only shook the USA, but quickly spread across the world. Thus, by the end of October, stock exchanges in Australia lost 41.8%, in Canada lost 22.5%, in Hong Kong lost 45.8%, and in Great Britain lost 26.4%. The names “Black Monday” and “Black Tuesday” are also used for October 28-29, 1929, which followed Terrible Thursday--the starting day of the stock market crash in 1929. The crash in 1987 raised some puzzles-–main news and events did not predict the catastrophe and visible reasons for the collapse were not identified. This event raised questions about many important assumptions of modern economics, namely, the theory of rational human conduct, the theory of market equilibrium and the hypothesis of market efficiency. For some time after the crash, trading in stock exchanges worldwide was halted, since the exchange computers did not perform well owing to enormous quantity of trades being received at one time. This halt in trading allowed the Federal Reserve system and central banks of other countries to take measures to control the spreading of worldwide financial crisis. In the United States the SEC introduced several new measures of control into the stock market in an attempt to prevent a re-occurrence of the events of Black Monday. Computer systems were upgraded in the stock exchanges to handle larger trading volumes in a more accurate and controlled manner. The SEC modified the margin requirements in an attempt to lower the volatility of common stocks, stock options and the futures market. The New York Stock Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange introduced the concept of a circuit breaker. The circuit breaker halts trading if the Dow declines a prescribed number of points for a prescribed amount of time.
New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) circuit breakers
% drop
time of drop
close trading for
10% drop
before 2PM
one hour halt
10% drop
2PM - 2:30PM
half-hour halt
10% drop
after 2:30PM
market stays open
20% drop
before 1PM
halt for two hours
20% drop
1PM - 2PM
halt for one hour
20% drop
after 2PM
close for the day
30% drop
any time during day
close for the day
There have been famous stock market crashes that have ended in the loss of billions of dollars and wealth destruction on a massive scale. An increasing number of people are involved in the stock market, especially since the social security and retirement plans are being increasingly privatized and linked to stocks and bonds and other elements of the market. There have been a number of famous stock market crashes like the Wall Street Crash of 1929, the stock market crash of 1973–4, the Black Monday of 1987, the Dot-com bubble of 2000, and the Stock Market Crash of 2008.
One of the most famous stock market crashes started October 24, 1929 on Black Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial lost 50% during this stock market crash. It was the beginning of the Great Depression. Another famous crash took place on October 19, 1987 – Black Monday. On Black Monday itself, the Dow Jones fell by 22.6% after completing a 5 year continuous rise in share prices. This event not only shook the USA, but quickly spread across the world. Thus, by the end of October, stock exchanges in Australia lost 41.8%, in Canada lost 22.5%, in Hong Kong lost 45.8%, and in Great Britain lost 26.4%. The names “Black Monday” and “Black Tuesday” are also used for October 28-29, 1929, which followed Terrible Thursday--the starting day of the stock market crash in 1929. The crash in 1987 raised some puzzles-–main news and events did not predict the catastrophe and visible reasons for the collapse were not identified. This event raised questions about many important assumptions of modern economics, namely, the theory of rational human conduct, the theory of market equilibrium and the hypothesis of market efficiency. For some time after the crash, trading in stock exchanges worldwide was halted, since the exchange computers did not perform well owing to enormous quantity of trades being received at one time. This halt in trading allowed the Federal Reserve system and central banks of other countries to take measures to control the spreading of worldwide financial crisis. In the United States the SEC introduced several new measures of control into the stock market in an attempt to prevent a re-occurrence of the events of Black Monday. Computer systems were upgraded in the stock exchanges to handle larger trading volumes in a more accurate and controlled manner. The SEC modified the margin requirements in an attempt to lower the volatility of common stocks, stock options and the futures market. The New York Stock Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange introduced the concept of a circuit breaker. The circuit breaker halts trading if the Dow declines a prescribed number of points for a prescribed amount of time.
New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) circuit breakers
% drop
time of drop
close trading for
10% drop
before 2PM
one hour halt
10% drop
2PM - 2:30PM
half-hour halt
10% drop
after 2:30PM
market stays open
20% drop
before 1PM
halt for two hours
20% drop
1PM - 2PM
halt for one hour
20% drop
after 2PM
close for the day
30% drop
any time during day
close for the day
Irrational behavior
Sometimes the market seems to react irrationally to economic or financial news, even if that news is likely to have no real effect on the technical value of securities itself. But this may be more apparent than real, since often such news has been anticipated, and a counterreaction may occur if the news is better (or worse) than expected. Therefore, the stock market may be swayed in either direction by press releases, rumors, euphoria and mass panic; but generally only briefly, as more experienced investors (especially the hedge funds) quickly rally to take advantage of even the slightest, momentary hysteria.
Over the short-term, stocks and other securities can be battered or buoyed by any number of fast market-changing events, making the stock market behavior difficult to predict. Emotions can drive prices up and down, people are generally not as rational as they think, and the reasons for buying and selling are generally obscure. Behaviorists argue that investors often behave 'irrationally' when making investment decisions thereby incorrectly pricing securities, which causes market inefficiencies, which, in turn, are opportunities to make money. However, the whole notion of EMH is that these non-rational reactions to information cancel out, leaving the prices of stocks rationally determined.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average biggest gain in one day was 936.42 points or 11 percent, this occurred on October 13, 2008.
Over the short-term, stocks and other securities can be battered or buoyed by any number of fast market-changing events, making the stock market behavior difficult to predict. Emotions can drive prices up and down, people are generally not as rational as they think, and the reasons for buying and selling are generally obscure. Behaviorists argue that investors often behave 'irrationally' when making investment decisions thereby incorrectly pricing securities, which causes market inefficiencies, which, in turn, are opportunities to make money. However, the whole notion of EMH is that these non-rational reactions to information cancel out, leaving the prices of stocks rationally determined.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average biggest gain in one day was 936.42 points or 11 percent, this occurred on October 13, 2008.
The behavior of the stock market
From experience we know that investors may 'temporarily' move financial prices away from their long term aggregate price 'trends'. (Positive or up trends are referred to as bull markets; negative or down trends are referred to as bear markets.) Over-reactions may occur—so that excessive optimism (euphoria) may drive prices unduly high or excessive pessimism may drive prices unduly low. New theoretical and empirical arguments have since been put forward against the notion that financial markets are 'generally' efficient (i.e., in the sense that stock prices in the aggregate tend to follow a Gaussian distribution).
According to the efficient market hypothesis (EMH), only changes in fundamental factors, such as the outlook for margins, profits or dividends, ought to affect share prices beyond the short term, where random 'noise' in the system may prevail. (But this largely theoretic academic viewpoint—known as 'hard' EMH—also predicts that little or no trading should take place, contrary to fact, since prices are already at or near equilibrium, having priced in all public knowledge.) The 'hard' efficient-market hypothesis is sorely tested by such events as the stock market crash in 1987, when the Dow Jones index plummeted 22.6 percent—the largest-ever one-day fall in the United States. This event demonstrated that share prices can fall dramatically even though, to this day, it is impossible to fix a generally agreed upon definite cause: a thorough search failed to detect any 'reasonable' development that might have accounted for the crash. (But note that such events are predicted to occur strictly by chance , although very rarely.) It seems also to be the case more generally that many price movements (beyond that which are predicted to occur 'randomly') are not occasioned by new information; a study of the fifty largest one-day share price movements in the United States in the post-war period seems to confirm this.
However, a 'soft' EMH has emerged which does not require that prices remain at or near equilibrium, but only that market participants not be able to systematically profit from any momentary market 'inefficiencies'. Moreover, while EMH predicts that all price movement (in the absence of change in fundamental information) is random (i.e., non-trending), many studies have shown a marked tendency for the stock market to trend over time periods of weeks or longer. Various explanations for such large and apparently non-random price movements have been promulgated. For instance, some research has shown that changes in estimated risk, and the use of certain strategies, such as stop-loss limits and Value at Risk limits, theoretically could cause financial markets to overreact. But the best explanation seems to be that the distribution of stock market prices is non-Gaussian (in which case EMH, in any of its current forms, would not be strictly applicable).
Other research has shown that psychological factors may result in exaggerated (statistically anomalous) stock price movements (contrary to EMH which assumes such behaviors 'cancel out'). Psychological research has demonstrated that people are predisposed to 'seeing' patterns, and often will perceive a pattern in what is, in fact, just noise. (Something like seeing familiar shapes in clouds or ink blots.) In the present context this means that a succession of good news items about a company may lead investors to overreact positively (unjustifiably driving the price up). A period of good returns also boosts the investor's self-confidence, reducing his (psychological) risk threshold.
Another phenomenon—also from psychology—that works against an objective assessment is group thinking. As social animals, it is not easy to stick to an opinion that differs markedly from that of a majority of the group. An example with which one may be familiar is the reluctance to enter a restaurant that is empty; people generally prefer to have their opinion validated by those of others in the group.
In one paper the authors draw an analogy with gambling. In normal times the market behaves like a game of roulette; the probabilities are known and largely independent of the investment decisions of the different players. In times of market stress, however, the game becomes more like poker (herding behavior takes over). The players now must give heavy weight to the psychology of other investors and how they are likely to react psychologically.
The stock market, as any other business, is quite unforgiving of amateurs. Inexperienced investors rarely get the assistance and support they need. In the period running up to the 1987 crash, less than 1 percent of the analyst's recommendations had been to sell (and even during the 2000 - 2002 bear market, the average did not rise above 5%). In the run up to 2000, the media amplified the general euphoria, with reports of rapidly rising share prices and the notion that large sums of money could be quickly earned in the so-called new economy stock market. (And later amplified the gloom which descended during the 2000 - 2002 bear market, so that by summer of 2002, predictions of a DOW average below 5000 were quite common.)
According to the efficient market hypothesis (EMH), only changes in fundamental factors, such as the outlook for margins, profits or dividends, ought to affect share prices beyond the short term, where random 'noise' in the system may prevail. (But this largely theoretic academic viewpoint—known as 'hard' EMH—also predicts that little or no trading should take place, contrary to fact, since prices are already at or near equilibrium, having priced in all public knowledge.) The 'hard' efficient-market hypothesis is sorely tested by such events as the stock market crash in 1987, when the Dow Jones index plummeted 22.6 percent—the largest-ever one-day fall in the United States. This event demonstrated that share prices can fall dramatically even though, to this day, it is impossible to fix a generally agreed upon definite cause: a thorough search failed to detect any 'reasonable' development that might have accounted for the crash. (But note that such events are predicted to occur strictly by chance , although very rarely.) It seems also to be the case more generally that many price movements (beyond that which are predicted to occur 'randomly') are not occasioned by new information; a study of the fifty largest one-day share price movements in the United States in the post-war period seems to confirm this.
However, a 'soft' EMH has emerged which does not require that prices remain at or near equilibrium, but only that market participants not be able to systematically profit from any momentary market 'inefficiencies'. Moreover, while EMH predicts that all price movement (in the absence of change in fundamental information) is random (i.e., non-trending), many studies have shown a marked tendency for the stock market to trend over time periods of weeks or longer. Various explanations for such large and apparently non-random price movements have been promulgated. For instance, some research has shown that changes in estimated risk, and the use of certain strategies, such as stop-loss limits and Value at Risk limits, theoretically could cause financial markets to overreact. But the best explanation seems to be that the distribution of stock market prices is non-Gaussian (in which case EMH, in any of its current forms, would not be strictly applicable).
Other research has shown that psychological factors may result in exaggerated (statistically anomalous) stock price movements (contrary to EMH which assumes such behaviors 'cancel out'). Psychological research has demonstrated that people are predisposed to 'seeing' patterns, and often will perceive a pattern in what is, in fact, just noise. (Something like seeing familiar shapes in clouds or ink blots.) In the present context this means that a succession of good news items about a company may lead investors to overreact positively (unjustifiably driving the price up). A period of good returns also boosts the investor's self-confidence, reducing his (psychological) risk threshold.
Another phenomenon—also from psychology—that works against an objective assessment is group thinking. As social animals, it is not easy to stick to an opinion that differs markedly from that of a majority of the group. An example with which one may be familiar is the reluctance to enter a restaurant that is empty; people generally prefer to have their opinion validated by those of others in the group.
In one paper the authors draw an analogy with gambling. In normal times the market behaves like a game of roulette; the probabilities are known and largely independent of the investment decisions of the different players. In times of market stress, however, the game becomes more like poker (herding behavior takes over). The players now must give heavy weight to the psychology of other investors and how they are likely to react psychologically.
The stock market, as any other business, is quite unforgiving of amateurs. Inexperienced investors rarely get the assistance and support they need. In the period running up to the 1987 crash, less than 1 percent of the analyst's recommendations had been to sell (and even during the 2000 - 2002 bear market, the average did not rise above 5%). In the run up to 2000, the media amplified the general euphoria, with reports of rapidly rising share prices and the notion that large sums of money could be quickly earned in the so-called new economy stock market. (And later amplified the gloom which descended during the 2000 - 2002 bear market, so that by summer of 2002, predictions of a DOW average below 5000 were quite common.)
The stock market, individual investors, and financial risk
Riskier long-term saving requires that an individual possess the ability to manage the associated increased risks. Stock prices fluctuate widely, in marked contrast to the stability of (government insured) bank deposits or bonds. This is something that could affect not only the individual investor or household, but also the economy on a large scale. The following deals with some of the risks of the financial sector in general and the stock market in particular. This is certainly more important now that so many newcomers have entered the stock market, or have acquired other 'risky' investments (such as 'investment' property, i.e., real estate and collectables).
With each passing year, the noise level in the stock market rises. Television commentators, financial writers, analysts, and market strategists are all overtaking each other to get investors' attention. At the same time, individual investors, immersed in chat rooms and message boards, are exchanging questionable and often misleading tips. Yet, despite all this available information, investors find it increasingly difficult to profit. Stock prices skyrocket with little reason, then plummet just as quickly, and people who have turned to investing for their children's education and their own retirement become frightened. Sometimes there appears to be no rhyme or reason to the market, only folly.
This is a quote from the preface to a published biography about the long-term value-oriented stock investor Warren Buffett. Buffett began his career with $100, and $105,000 from seven limited partners consisting of Buffett's family and friends. Over the years he has built himself a multi-billion-dollar fortune. The quote illustrates some of what has been happening in the stock market during the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century.
With each passing year, the noise level in the stock market rises. Television commentators, financial writers, analysts, and market strategists are all overtaking each other to get investors' attention. At the same time, individual investors, immersed in chat rooms and message boards, are exchanging questionable and often misleading tips. Yet, despite all this available information, investors find it increasingly difficult to profit. Stock prices skyrocket with little reason, then plummet just as quickly, and people who have turned to investing for their children's education and their own retirement become frightened. Sometimes there appears to be no rhyme or reason to the market, only folly.
This is a quote from the preface to a published biography about the long-term value-oriented stock investor Warren Buffett. Buffett began his career with $100, and $105,000 from seven limited partners consisting of Buffett's family and friends. Over the years he has built himself a multi-billion-dollar fortune. The quote illustrates some of what has been happening in the stock market during the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century.
Relation of the stock market to the modern financial system
The financial system in most western countries has undergone a remarkable transformation. One feature of this development is disintermediation. A portion of the funds involved in saving and financing flows directly to the financial markets instead of being routed via the traditional bank lending and deposit operations. The general public's heightened interest in investing in the stock market, either directly or through mutual funds, has been an important component of this process. Statistics show that in recent decades shares have made up an increasingly large proportion of households' financial assets in many countries. In the 1970s, in Sweden, deposit accounts and other very liquid assets with little risk made up almost 60 percent of households' financial wealth, compared to less than 20 percent in the 2000s. The major part of this adjustment in financial portfolios has gone directly to shares but a good deal now takes the form of various kinds of institutional investment for groups of individuals, e.g., pension funds, mutual funds, hedge funds, insurance investment of premiums, etc. The trend towards forms of saving with a higher risk has been accentuated by new rules for most funds and insurance, permitting a higher proportion of shares to bonds. Similar tendencies are to be found in other industrialized countries. In all developed economic systems, such as the European Union, the United States, Japan and other developed nations, the trend has been the same: saving has moved away from traditional (government insured) bank deposits to more risky securities of one sort or another.
Importance of stock market
Function and purpose
The stock market is one of the most important sources for companies to raise money. This allows businesses to be publicly traded, or raise additional capital for expansion by selling shares of ownership of the company in a public market. The liquidity that an exchange provides affords investors the ability to quickly and easily sell securities. This is an attractive feature of investing in stocks, compared to other less liquid investments such as real estate.
History has shown that the price of shares and other assets is an important part of the dynamics of economic activity, and can influence or be an indicator of social mood. An economy where the stock market is on the rise is considered to be an up and coming economy. In fact, the stock market is often considered the primary indicator of a country's economic strength and development. Rising share prices, for instance, tend to be associated with increased business investment and vice versa. Share prices also affect the wealth of households and their consumption. Therefore, central banks tend to keep an eye on the control and behavior of the stock market and, in general, on the smooth operation of financial system functions. Financial stability is the raison d'être of central banks.
Exchanges also act as the clearinghouse for each transaction, meaning that they collect and deliver the shares, and guarantee payment to the seller of a security. This eliminates the risk to an individual buyer or seller that the counterparty could default on the transaction.
The smooth functioning of all these activities facilitates economic growth in that lower costs and enterprise risks promote the production of goods and services as well as employment. In this way the financial system contributes to increased prosperity.
The stock market is one of the most important sources for companies to raise money. This allows businesses to be publicly traded, or raise additional capital for expansion by selling shares of ownership of the company in a public market. The liquidity that an exchange provides affords investors the ability to quickly and easily sell securities. This is an attractive feature of investing in stocks, compared to other less liquid investments such as real estate.
History has shown that the price of shares and other assets is an important part of the dynamics of economic activity, and can influence or be an indicator of social mood. An economy where the stock market is on the rise is considered to be an up and coming economy. In fact, the stock market is often considered the primary indicator of a country's economic strength and development. Rising share prices, for instance, tend to be associated with increased business investment and vice versa. Share prices also affect the wealth of households and their consumption. Therefore, central banks tend to keep an eye on the control and behavior of the stock market and, in general, on the smooth operation of financial system functions. Financial stability is the raison d'être of central banks.
Exchanges also act as the clearinghouse for each transaction, meaning that they collect and deliver the shares, and guarantee payment to the seller of a security. This eliminates the risk to an individual buyer or seller that the counterparty could default on the transaction.
The smooth functioning of all these activities facilitates economic growth in that lower costs and enterprise risks promote the production of goods and services as well as employment. In this way the financial system contributes to increased prosperity.
History
association and had knowledge of many methods of financial dealings, disproving the belief that these were originally invented later by Italians. In 12th century France the courratiers de change were concerned with managing and regulating the debts of agricultural communities on behalf of the banks. Because these men also traded with debts, they could be called the first brokers. A common misbelief is that in late 13th century Bruges commodity traders gathered inside the house of a man called Van der Beurze, and in 1309 they became the "Brugse Beurse", institutionalizing what had been, until then, an informal meeting, but actually, the family Van der Beurze had a building in Antwerp where those gatherings occurred ; the Van der Beurze had Antwerp, as most of the merchants of that period, as their primary place for trading. The idea quickly spread around Flanders and neighboring counties and "Beurzen" soon opened in Ghent and Amsterdam.
In the middle of the 13th century, Venetian bankers began to trade in government securities. In 1351 the Venetian government outlawed spreading rumors intended to lower the price of government funds. Bankers in Pisa, Verona, Genoa and Florence also began trading in government securities during the 14th century. This was only possible because these were independent city states not ruled by a duke but a council of influential citizens. The Dutch later started joint stock companies, which let shareholders invest in business ventures and get a share of their profits - or losses. In 1602, the Dutch East India Company issued the first share on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange. It was the first company to issue stocks and bonds.
The Amsterdam Stock Exchange (or Amsterdam Beurs) is also said to have been the first stock exchange to introduce continuous trade in the early 17th century. The Dutch "pioneered short selling, option trading, debt-equity swaps, merchant banking, unit trusts and other speculative instruments, much as we know them" (Murray Sayle, "Japan Goes Dutch", London Review of Books XXIII.7, April 5, 2001). There are now stock markets in virtually every developed and most developing economies, with the world's biggest markets being in the United States, UK, Japan, China, Canada, Germany, and France.
In the middle of the 13th century, Venetian bankers began to trade in government securities. In 1351 the Venetian government outlawed spreading rumors intended to lower the price of government funds. Bankers in Pisa, Verona, Genoa and Florence also began trading in government securities during the 14th century. This was only possible because these were independent city states not ruled by a duke but a council of influential citizens. The Dutch later started joint stock companies, which let shareholders invest in business ventures and get a share of their profits - or losses. In 1602, the Dutch East India Company issued the first share on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange. It was the first company to issue stocks and bonds.
The Amsterdam Stock Exchange (or Amsterdam Beurs) is also said to have been the first stock exchange to introduce continuous trade in the early 17th century. The Dutch "pioneered short selling, option trading, debt-equity swaps, merchant banking, unit trusts and other speculative instruments, much as we know them" (Murray Sayle, "Japan Goes Dutch", London Review of Books XXIII.7, April 5, 2001). There are now stock markets in virtually every developed and most developing economies, with the world's biggest markets being in the United States, UK, Japan, China, Canada, Germany, and France.
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